The Choice Of Intermediate Target Of China's Monetary Policy Under The Background Of Interest Rate Marketization

With the liberalization of interest rate control in China,interest rate marketization becomes more and more perfect,which will inevitably affect our monetary policy.In this big background,this paper using the related data and econometric analysis method is mainly studied about the problems of China's intermediary target selection,namely our country monetary policy intermediary goal whether it should be transferred from the money supply to the marketization of interest rate.This paper mainly analyzes the applicability of money supply and interest rate as intermediary target in China at the present stage.First of all,from the theoretical level,this article from Sweden in the third part expounds the school and Keynesian school to the rational expectations school and a series of famous economics involved in some famous views about intermediary target selection,for econometric analysis and research of this article.In this paper,the fourth part mainly from the monetary theory and Keynesian theory such as the two main economic theory,analysis the advantages and disadvantages of money supply and interest rate as the intermediary target and the economic environment,for the choice of monetary policy intermediary goal provides a theoretical basis.At the same time,based on these theory,about the intermediary target from interest rates to the money supply should be how to choose in the end,the final analysis result is which depending on whether the money demand function has certain stability: if money demand function is stable,then only is the money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy;On the contrary,if it is unstable,so must be interest rate as the intermediary target of monetary policy,interest rates also thinks interest rates as intermediary goal must have a demand to interest rates has a large elastic conditions.In the empirical analysis aspect,because of the money supply level is more,the meaning is not the same,this article is based on predecessors' research experience and the purposes of this article,think that the narrow money supply M1 and M2 as the intermediary target index measurement analysis is appropriate.Will be a series ofmeasurement data processing,using Johansen cointegration test,granger causality test,such as measurement method,the money supply and real macroeconomic variables VAR model between the GDP and CPI,figure based on impulse response function analysis,from the monetary policy intermediary goal request variables must satisfy three basic conditions,to determine the most suitable for M1 and M2 as quantitative monetary policy intermediary target of money supply,the final conclusion: based on the selection of sample points in this paper,and using the model,the M1 and the correlation between GDP and CPI and stability are better than the effect of the M2,so this paper think that during the period of research,the narrow money supply M1 as the intermediary target of monetary policy effect is better than M2,more prominent.This paper select type price proxy variables of monetary policy is the national inter-bank pledged repo rate(DR007)and the national inter-bank lending rates(CHIBOR),through the same test,will DR007 macroeconomic variables and CHIBOR respectively on the real GDP and CPI VAR model is established,based on the impulse response function analysis,comparing the two kinds of marketization of interest rate as the price model the effect of monetary policy intermediary goal,finally it is concluded that: DR007 type as the price of the effect of monetary policy intermediary goal is better than CHIBOR,more prominent.Finally determine the M1,the DR007 and GDP and CPI SVAR model is set up,according to the impulse response function and variance decomposition,comparative analysis,M1 DR007 respectively as the intermediary target of monetary policy's impact on GDP,CPI and finally draw the conclusion: from the point of impulse response function,M1 and correlation with GDP and CPI are more significant than DR007 stability;From the variance decomposition,the contribution to the GDP and CPI M1 and longer than DR007,therefore,from the face of the economic and financial market development at the present stage in China,the central bank monetary policy should be mainly based on quantitative monetary policy is to give priority to.