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Analysis Of The Relationship Between Insurance Cycle And Business Cycle

Posted on:2019-01-28Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z K LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2359330542993726Subject:Insurance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The “financial cycle” has received the great attention of the entire academic researchIn recent years.The global economy has become more closely linked with the trend of economic globalization and regional integration.The volatility of other countries' economies will be rapidly transmitted to China,and the macroeconomic changes in China will impact the healthy development of the insurance industry."Insurance Cycle" is a brand-new concept proposed by Sun Qixiang for the first time on the basis of China's national conditions.Subsequently,domestic experts and scholars began to study the Insurance Cycle at different times,and proved the existence of the Insurance Cycle.Different methods were used to measure the length of the Insurance Cycle,and the reasons for the fluctuation of the Insurance Cycle were proposed.With the further development of the economy,the development of the insurance industry in various regions shows uneven conditions.From the regional perspective,the analysis of the differences and relationships between the cyclical fluctuations of the insurance industry and the macroeconomic cyclical patterns has a great theoretical and practical significance of healthy development of regional insurance industry,which is conducive to the comprehensive protection,functional perfection,safety and soundness,integrity standardization of insurance industry,and also improve the capabilities of service,innovation and international competitiveness of insurance companies.Construct the modern insurance service industry which adapts to the economic and social development level of our country to transfer our country from the big country of insurance to an insurance power.This paper first analyzes the existence and influencing factors of the theoretical analysis cycle,and then sorts out relevant existing theories on the study of the economic cycle,especially the causes of the economic cycle and the factors that affect the economic cycle;Second,the consolidation and induction of the insurance cycle and insurance Cycle-related research progress highlights the need for the current study of the insurance cycle.Finally,it combines the insurance cycle with the economic cycle to analyze the relationship between the insurance industry and the economy.It was found that regional insurance and social economy can promote each other.In the empirical part of the article,the Census-X12 method in EViews 8.0 was used to seasonally adjust the premium income and GDP time series.After eliminating the seasonal fluctuations in the time series,the traditional method of using the cycle analysis was the HP filter pair processed time series.The cyclic fluctuation component of data extraction proves the existence of the cycle from the morphological perspective and analyzes the characteristics of the insurance cycle and economic cycle in the four major regions.Through the analysis of the four major regional insurance industry cycles in the eastern,central,western and northeast regions of China,it is proved that the four major regional insurance industries all have different degrees of cyclical fluctuations,and the regional insurances are compared from the cyclical fluctuation forms and cycle start time points.Cycles and economic cycles find that the insurance cycle in the central region is very similar to the insurance cycle in the western region,except that the fluctuations in the western region are more moderate than those in the central region,and the differences between the insurance industry in the eastern region and the insurance industry in the northeast region are larger and different.In the central and western parts of the country,the cycle of insurance in the eastern part of the country fluctuates most violently,and the northeastern part of the country is centered.The fluctuations in the business cycle are more stable than those in the insurance cycle.In addition,the regional insurance cycle is lagging.Central and western regions lag behind the eastern region by about one quarter.The northeast region lags behind by about half a year in the east.Small changes in the macroeconomy will dramatically expand or weaken the insurance cycle.It also proves that the insurance industry has Cyclical,this shows that in the current economic downturn,it is necessary to strengthen the countercyclical supervision of the insurance industry in order to promote the healthy and stable development of the regional insurance industry.Second,the article uses time-series analysis methods to perform time-frequency analysis of the insurance industry and macroeconomics.Firstly,the adjusted regional income data and GDP data were tested for stability.Under the premise that each time series had the same order,the cointegration test theory was adopted to confirm the long-term equilibrium of the four major regional insurance industries and macroeconomics.The relationship exists,and then an error correction model is used to establish an error correction model for each insurance industry and macroeconomics and pass the stationarity test to show that the short-term fluctuations and the long-term equilibrium occur in the short-term equilibrium relationship between the insurance industry and the macro-economy in the four regions.When deviating,the deviations of 66%,48.6%,54.5%,and 78.2% of the eastern insurance industry,the central insurance industry,the western insurance industry,and the northeastern insurance industry will be corrected.Finally,a Granger causality test model for premium income and GDP for four regions was established.According to the test results,the two-way Granger causality exists only between the insurance industry and the macro economy in the eastern region.The eastern insurance industry and the economy have two-way Granger causality.The one-way Granger causality exists in three other regions outside the East.The three major regional insurance industries are the Granger causes of macroeconomics,and the macroeconomy is not the Granger cause of insurance in the three regions.The development of the insurance industry in the central,western,and northeastern regions will contribute to macroeconomic growth.However,from the Granger causality test alone,the macroeconomic impact on the three regional insurance industries is not significant.
Keywords/Search Tags:insurance cycle, economic cycle, HP filter analysis, cointegration analysis, error correction model
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