Study On The Influence Of Retail Anger On Stock Market Returns

In the 1950s,modern financial theory was born.after 20 years of rapid development,a set of relatively complete financial theory system was initially formed.However,in the late 70's,there were many market anomalies in the securities market,which were contrary to the traditional financial theory and made the traditional financial theory be questioned.Based on these market anomalies,academia began to reflect,behavioral finance was born.Behavioral finance questions two basic theories of traditional financial theory,and puts forward its own views on this basis.First,limited arbitrage theory,which questions the complete arbitrage hypothesis of transmission financial theory,and thinks that in the real environment,the arbitrage behavior of the market is difficult to realize.Second,the investor emotion theory,the theory of traditional financial theory rational man hypothesis questioned,began to reflect from the people point of view,so as to put forward the social man hypothesis,the hypothesis denies the irrational irrelevant,and that investor emotion to the stock market yield can provide a certain explanation ability.At present,there are many researches on the relationship between investor sentiment and stock return rate,but researches on the relationship between a certain investor sentiment and market return rate are few.Anger,as a typical investor sentiment,can have a great impact on investment decision-making behavior.This paper studies the relationship between anger and stock market return rate.In this paper,the data base of investor anger comes from the eastmoney stock bar,which is a platform for individual investors to express their views on the stock market.It collects a large number of text information that can express individual investors'emotions.This paper will discuss the relationship between retail anger and stock returns.In order to study the relationship between retail anger and stock market returns,this paper reviews the relevant literature.According to the effective market theory,behavioral finance theory,capital asset pricing theory;Then,taking stocks from 2015 to 2017 as the research object,using python to write crawler program to grasp the comment text information of the stock theme in the oriental wealth net stock bar,and refining the information of retail investors' anger emotion reflected in the comment,and constructing retail investors' anger emotion index;On this basis,the empirical test was carried out on the correlation index of retail anger and stock market return rate,and the relationship between retail anger and stock market return rate was analyzed.the retail anger index was added into the capital asset pricing model to explain the stock market return rate.finally,the robustness of the conclusion was tested.The results shows 1.The anger of retail investors can have a significant negative impact on stock returns in the long term,and play a certain role in the prediction of stock prices.2.Differences in retail anger can have a significant positive effect on stock returns.3.The anger of retail investors in the bear market to predict the stock yield ability is greater than the ability to predict in the bull market.4.the attention of retail investors can not have a significant impact on the stock market yield in the short term,but can have a significant negative impact on the stock market yield in the long term.5.The stock market yield can affect the anger of retail investors for a long time,and has a significant negative correlation with it.6.The stock market rate of return in a short period of time can not have a significant impact on the attention of retail investors,but can have a positive and significant impact on it in the long term.