Research On The Impact Of Trade Facilitation In Silk Road Economic Belt On China ’S Trade Potential

With the development of international trade,more and more countries have benefited from economic globalization.With the rapid development of international trade,the trade regimes in various countries have been gradually liberalized and the tariff level has been greatly reduced after many years of trade negotiations.The role to promote the development of international trade through the regulation of tariffs is less and less obvious.The "inefficiency of trade" impeding the development of trade has become the focus.These "inefficiencies in trade" include complicated customs procedures,numerous customs clearance procedures.sound government regulation and so on.These invisible market barriers seriously increase the cost of cross-border trade and severely reduce the trade efficiency.The proposal of trade facilitation has provided a new direction for all countries to reduce the inefficiency of trade.The issue of trade facilitation to simplify and coordinate trade procedures and formalities has become a hot topic of common concern and the common aspiration of the public and all countries in the world.In September 2013,President Xi made a speech to promote the strategic development of the "Silk Road Economic Belt." during his visit to Kazakhstan.The implementation of this strategy mainly manifests in two aspects.First,it actively promotes the trade negotiations among various countries in the economic belt.Based on the "Silk Road Economic Belt",the establishment of a free trade zone will be gradually promoted step by step and the area eventually formed.Second,increase the investment to the countries which is of "Silk Road Economic Belt",especially the backward countries along the line,to help them improve the level of infrastructure,enhance trade modernization,and ultimately achieve win-win results for both trade parties.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to focus on the strategic plan of "Silk Road Economic Belt" as an opportunity to study the level of trade facilitation in countries along the line and to forecast the potential of China’s trade.Firstly,this paper collates the relevant research findings on trade facilitation that affect trade facilitation and constructs a series of research results including five points Level indicators of the trade facilitation evaluation system,which is based on the definition of trade facilitation by WTO,APEC,WCO and other economic organizations.The five first-level indicators with 21 second-level indicators,are able to more accurately reflect the real situation.The second-level indicators of numerical standardized by the principal component analysis method calculates the weight of each second-level index which is used to calculate the weight of the first-level index.Finally we obtain the trade facilitation index of the "Silk Road Economic Belt."From the measurement results,it can be seen that the level of trade facilitation in European countries is mostly at a very convenient stage.Most of the trade facilitation levels in Asian countries are at a relatively convenient and generally convenient level.Among them,the Central Asian region is rather special.Each country in Central Asia have a low level of trade facilitation and are in an inconvenient stage with great room for improvement.Secondly,the influence of trade facilitation on the trade flow in our country and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is studied.Building an extended gravitation model,we select Stata for the regression of trade flow,GDP,population,distance and trade facilitation.The regression results show that the gross domestic product(GDP)of the countries along the line,the trade facilitation index TWIFT has a positive impact on the trade flows.But the impact of distance D between the two countries is negative.The trade facilitation index has the greatest impact on bilateral trade flows and becomes the largest source of gravitation for the increase of trade flows.The improvement of the level of trade facilitation can greatly reduce the trade costs and the trade parties are also more conveniently and smoothly engaged in international trade.In order to further study the impact of trade facilitation on trade flows,five first-level indicators are respectively included in the regression model.The results show that the port efficiency has the greatest impact,followed by the customs environment,institutional environment and modern information technology.The regression results of financial services are not significantly affected.Thirdly,the trade potential is simulated and the ratio between the actual value and the theoretical value of the trade flow is calculated.The countries along the line are classified into huge potential,potential exploitation and potential reform.The forecast results show that the trade potential of Central Asian countries belongs to potential.The pioneering and potential re-creation shows that the trade resistance between China and Central Asia is relatively small.South Asia and West Asia belong to huge potential and trade potential.The trade potential of European countries is quite diverse.Finally,based on the research results above and drawing on the experience of other countries in promoting trade facilitation,it is suggested that China should help all countries along the line to carry out infrastructure construction and realize interconnection and interoperability among ports.It calls for developing countries in the region to recognize the role of trade facilitation and actively participate in trade facilitation cooperation.It also calls for that China should build industrial parks with the economic belt countries,implement foreign investment strategies and promote the development of free trade zones.For countries with different trade potentials,China should treat it differently and according to local conditions.Only in this way can China promote intra-regional trade facilitation and create a win-win situation for both sides.