Research On The Influence Of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes On The Structure Of Chinese Export Trade

Since the 1990 s,China's foreign trade began to develop rapidly,export growth has improved significantly,at the same time,China's export trade structure has improved too;As the several impact of the global financial crisis,the world economy has been wilting,but the overall economy of China has been still growing,the foreign trade volume has became the champion in the world since 2013,the trade surplus has expanded continuously,thus the world trade deficit lead to growing trade friction between trading partners with China,so the us-led western countries began to put pressure on China,because of the RMB exchange rate appreciation.And RMB has opened the appreciation since 1994,led a certain degree of impact to our country economy,profoundly changed the structure of export trade in our country.So the RMB exchange rate change on the influence of the structure of export trade in our country has important practical significance.The study mainly has two ways in this paper: on the one hand,based on the study of the theory of the exchange rate on trade,through the study of the charts of the RMB real effective exchange rate index and structure of our country export trade,we conduct the qualitative analysis and get the preliminary conclusions.On the other hand,through the empirical research of the RMB real effective exchange rate index to the influence of the structure of export trade in our country.In this paper,in addition to consider the factor of the RMB real effective exchange rate,we also take the variable of gross foreign product into account,to analyze the quantity results by establishing the econometric model.The conclusion of empirical study mainly includes:(1)the RMB real effective exchange rate index has the longterm co-integration relationship with the proportion of the export of primary products,the resources and labor-intensive products,the capital and technology-intensive products and the export trade structure index;(2)the RMB exchange rate appreciation is conducive to the export trade structure optimization;(3)in the short term,the RMB real effective exchange rate is the main influencing factors in the proportion of export of resource and labor-intensive products,the capital and technology-intensive products;(4)the proportion of export of resource and labor-intensive products are sensitive to the change of RMB real effective exchange rate;(5)the proportion of the export of the primary products,the resources and labor intensive product and the capital and technology-intensive products is the granger causality of the RMB real effective exchange rate,the RMB real effective exchange rate and the export trade structure index are granger causality mutually.Finally,according to China's economic environment and the above research conclusion,the paper puts out sever countermeasures:(1)improving the RMB exchange rate system;(2)encouraging independent innovation,optimizing the industrial structure;(3)expanding domestic demand,reduce the external dependency;(4)modifying the trade policy.