| A collapse in stock prices is an extreme phenomenon of sharp downward movements in stock prices,also known as a collapse in share prices.Since the development of capital market,the stock price crash has occurred many times,which has brought great impact on the stable development of capital market.Share prices collapse phenomenon not only appears in the market level,individual stocks tumbled phenomenon also occurs frequently,the financial risk not only makes the interests of small and medium-sized investors threatened,even affects the healthy and stable development of capital market.As an aspect of accounting information disclosure,the earnings forecast is mainly a forward-looking information to predict the change of the company's earnings.The main purpose of the setting up of Earnings forecast system is to make up for the irregular financial reports of listed companies,disclosure of the company's earnings volatility risk to the public in advance,alleviate the information asymmetry in the capital markets,thus avoiding the company financial report regularly occurs when the volatility of share prices,then we can safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of outside investors.As the earnings forecast information influences the accuracy of investor's decisions,it is favored by more and more investors,and the academic community has also begun to pay attention to the research on the quality of earnings forecasting.Existing research shows that the earnings forecast information has information content,it helps to reduce the information asymmetry between management and investors,it can affects the investors investment behavior and analysts predict behavior.However,the earnings forecast system is not perfect in our country,it leaves space to management to seek personal gain by earnings manipulation,then affects the decision's accuracy of market participants.So,how does the quality of earnings forecasts affect the risk of a stock price crash?On this basis,this paper further considers the influence of property rights,and compares the relationship between the performance forecast quality and the risk of stock price collapse under different property rights.The research of this paper not only owns the theoretical significance of enriching relevant literature,but also the practical significance of promoting the healthy and stable development of China's capital market and improving the earnings forecasting system in China.Starting from the background of earnings forecast system in China and the present situation,combined with the behavioral finance,asymmetric information and principal-agent theory based on theoretical analysis,at the same time chooses Shanghai and Shenzhen between 2007 and 2015 A shares of earnings forecast information disclosure of listed companies as the research object,this paper uses the multiple regression analysis method from two aspects of earnings forecast precision and accuracy of the results of the empirical testing forecast quality and the relationship between stock price crash risk,and further analyzes of the relationship between them under different property rights if there are difference.Research conclusion of this paper includes the following two aspects:(1)limit other conditions,the listed company earnings forecast quality and a negative correlation relationship between stock price crash risk,earnings forecast quality of two kinds of measure-earnings forecast precision and accuracy and measurement of the listed company's share price collapse risk two substitution variables are significant negative correlation relationship,the higher of the listed company earnings forecast precision and accuracy,the smaller of the stock price crash risk.(2)limited other conditions,private listed companies,state-owned listed companies in the quality of earnings forecast and stock price crash risk is more significant,negative relationship between the grouped regression results found that both earnings forecast precision and accuracy of earnings forecast and negative relationship between stock price crash risk is more significant in the state-owned listed companies.In this paper,we study mainly includes the following five chapters:the first chapter is introduction,briefly introduces the research background and significance of the article,reviewing and combing the impact on stock price crash risk factors and the earnings forecast disclosure of economic consequences of the related literature at home and abroad,and introduced the research ideas and methods,research innovation and characteristics in this paper;Chapter two includes definition and theoretical basis,first of all,share prices collapse risk and quality of earnings forecast for the related concept definition,moreover introduces the theoretical basis from the behavioral finance theory,asymmetric information theory and principal-agent theory of these three aspects in detail;The third chapter talks about theoretical analysis and the research hypothesis,the system background and implementation of our preliminary results based on the analysis of the status,and further analyzes the quality of earnings forecast of stock price crash risk mechanism,at the same time puts forward the research hypothesis;The fourth chapter owns the empirical analysis,firstly we study the related literature at home and abroad for reference,the variables of the construction of the definition and research model,and then we use earnings forecast information disclosure of listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2007 to 2015 as samples data of descriptive statistics,correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis and so on,in order to verify whether the proposed research hypotheses;Fifth chapter owns conclusions and policy suggestions for research,summarizes the research conclusion of this paper,and combines with the actual situation of our country capital market and the related system development put forward some policy Suggestions,at the same time analyzes the deficiencies on the whole,we study and points out the future's direction of further research. |
PDF Full Text Request