The Impact Of International Agricultural Price On The Domestic Agricultural Price

Agricultural products are the most basic material basis for people’s livelihood and the guarantee for maintaining people’s livelihood.They are also an important part of the national economic development.Protecting the stability and security of the prices of agricultural products is what the state and people expect.With the deepening of globalization,the international trade of agricultural products is also more extensive,on the one hand,population increase and economic development make our country’s demand for agricultural products increase.China’s agricultural production is greatly affected by the weather and can make up for some deficiencies in the output of agricultural products through trade imports,on the other hand,the CIF value of some crops imported has an absolute advantage over the domestic prices,and many enterprises are more willing to choose to import agricultural products.Since 2004,China has been in a state of trade deficit in agricultural products,indicating that agricultural products are not only affected by the domestic market but also by the international market,The comparison of domestic and international agricultural product price index trends shows that both have undergone significant changes in 2003,2007,and 2011,especially after 2007.Based on this,this article studies how the relationship between international prices of agricultural products and domestic prices?The impact of different types of agricultural products are the same size?Based on this effect,the index of domestic agricultural products will be used to predict the price trend of agricultural products.This paper uses the monthly data from January 2001 to December 2016 to study the impact of international prices of agricultural products on the domestic prices,combing the factors of price fluctuations of agricultural products,the international price of agricultural products on domestic prices and other relevant and supply theory and Balanced prices and other theoretical basis.First,comparing the changes of the international and domestic agricultural price indices,we analyze the links between domestic and international price indices.Then,using the vector auto-regressive(VAR)model and impulse response function,we analyze the impact of the international agricultural product price index and the domestic agricultural product price index as a whole.Then,using the distributed lag model,we study the influence of the price of grain and meat and poultry by the international price separately.Finally,we can find out the leading and consistent indicators of domestic grain and poultry prices by calculating the K-L statistic.We can know the domestic grain and meat and poultry price index changes.Through the above empirical analysis to draw the following conclusions:Firstly,There is an impact between the international price index of agricultural products and the domestic price index.In the current period,the impact of a standard deviation of the international agricultural price index will have a positive impact on the domestic agricultural price index,reaching a maximum of 0.7 in the fifth period,In the current period,the impact of one standard deviation of the domestic agricultural price index on the international agricultural product price index also had a positive impact,reaching a maximum of 3.5 in the ninth period.Secondly,the international prices of different crops have different effects on domestic prices.The international price of soybean has significant impact on domestic prices,affecting the size of 0.3996.But,the international prices of wheat,corn and rice have no significant effect on domestic prices.The impact of international prices on domestic prices is consistent with their share of international trade.The domestic price index of meat and poultry was significantly affected by the international price index of poultry and meat,with an impact size of 0.0666.Thirdly,Based on the forecast of the index of domestic food and meat prices based on the model established by the leading index,it is concluded that the food price index will show a slight upward trend in the first half of 2017;The price index of meat and poultry products will be in a downward trend in the first half of 2017,and the price of meat and poultry will fall below the level of the same period in 2016.