An Empirical Study On The Interest Rate Expectation And Savings Behavior Of Chinese Residents

With the development of the China's reform and opening up in the past 40 years,the Chinese residents' income has increased significantly.At the same time,residents' savings have also increased year by year.And the proportion of savings in income continues to increase.Therefore,it is not surprising that there is a deficiency in the effective consumption demand of Chinese residents.The high savings rate of Chinese residents may have a number of negative impacts on China's economic growth during the transition period.In the new era of China's economic reform,And China's economic reforms gradually entered the deep-water zone.There are many uncertainties in the future economic development process,residents have forward-looking expectations for economic variables such as interest rates,and residents' interest rate expectations cannot be ignored in the process of making savings decision.Therefore,to explore how residents' interest rate expectations affect saving behavior? How to further optimize the residents' savings structure and stimulate residents' consumption.This has important practical significance for China's economic growth.This article basis on the savings theory,It mainly includes absolute income theory,relative income theory,life cycle theory,permanent income theory and preventive saving theory.Then systematically combing domestic and foreign savings articles,the relevant factors affecting savings are first summarized at the theoretical level.And based on the perspective of this study,we main description the impact of interest rate expectations on savings.Savings are not only affected by other factors.It has both positive and negative effects on the macro economy.The article has described how savings affect China's macroeconomic development from the reality of China.Secondly,the thesis reveals the stylized facts of household savings in China,which is mainly reflected in the continuous increase in the savings and savings rates of Chinese residents.The main reason may be the incompleteness of China's social security system and the unstable development of the economic system during the transition period,which inevitably leads to an increase in household savings.Based on the Western classic Ramsey model and Euler's dynamic equation,we constructed a theoretical model,which included savings variable and future expected interest rate variable.It further analyzes the mechanism by which residents' interest rates are expected to affect savings,and interest rate expectations may jointly affect household savings through income effects and alternative effects.Based on the above theoretical basis and China's realistic background,we uses data from the China Family Finance Survey Center(CHFS)of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in 2011.We statistically descriptive of variables at first,then we build an econometric model and test it empirically after we use mathematical statistics analysis methods to comprehensively organize the data.The article uses Probit model empirically analysis the effect of interest rate expectation on whether residents are saving and uses Tobit model empirically analysis the effect of interest rate expectation on saving ratios.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,residents' interest rates are expected to have a significant positive impact on their participation in savings and savings ratios.This shows that the expected interest rate of residents is mainly showing the income effect;Secondly,the impact of interest rate expectations on savings has a localized difference.The interest rate expectation has a significant positive effect on savings of urban residents,and has no significant effect on rural residents' savings.Thirdly,after using the instrumental variable approach to deal with possible endogenousness in empirical research,the significance and the coefficient of whether interest rates are expected to affect the ratio of savings and savings of the residents of the team have increased substantially;Finally,the paper proposes that the government strengthens anticipatory management,continues to promote the reform of the income distribution system,and improves the social security system.