| The NEEQ market of our country has been growing very fast since it was born,which plays an increasingly important role in solving the difficult problem of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises.At present,the NEEQ market has become an important part of China’s securities market,and plays a more and more significant role in the construction of multi-level capital market in China.With the gradual expansion of the market influence of the NEEQ,the demand for the value evaluation of the NEEQ listing enterprise is also increasing day by day.Most of them have these features,they are set up for a short time and they have high technology content,high cost and long cycle of R & D investment,and the great uncertainty and high risks in the future.Moreover,their intangible assets make up a larger proportion and their market liquidity is poor.So,it is very difficult to determine the value of the NEEQ market listed companies.When we value the NEEQ market listed companies by using the Black-Scholes model in the real option method,because of the poor NEEQ market liquidity,this paper aims to study the problem that it is difficult to directly determine the underlying asset price volatility.Based on the PFM model,it is considered that the same listed companies and non-listed companies in the same area and industry have a strong correlation with the fluctuation of their volatility if their scale and their financial status is similar.The paper creatively puts forward the research tools using fuzzy mathematics to calculate the underlying asset price volatility and value the NEEQ market listed companies by using the Black-Scholes model.The concrete steps of this new volatility calculation method are as follows: first,the GEM enterprises listed in the GEM market are listed in the same industry and the same area as the NEEQ companies assessed as alternative enterprises.By constructing fuzzy matter-element,we can calculate the closeness between these alternative enterprises and the evaluated NEEQ enterprises,thus selecting the comparable enterprises to be evaluated.Then,based on the size of the closeness between these comparable enterprises and the NEEQ enterprises assessed,we give these comparable enterprises the corresponding weight.Through these comparable enterprises in the GEM market underlying asset price volatility,we calculate the volatility of the underlying asset price of the NEEQ enterprise according to their weight weighting indirectly.Finally,it is applied to Black-Scholes option pricing model to evaluate the value of NEEQ enterprises.In order to test the rationality and accuracy of the valuation method proposed in this paper,this paper chooses GONN Network Technology Inc(430128)which is listed in the innovative layer of the NEEQ market as a case enterprise.We use the valuation method proposed in this paper,the traditional methods of volatility calculation and cash flow discounting to evaluate the case firms and calculate the theoretical stock price and the error rate of the case firms on the base date.Through the empirical study,it is found that using the Black-Scholes option pricing model in the real options method to evaluate the value of the NEEQ listed enterprises has strong applicability.The new method that is based on PFM model and using fuzzy mathematics tool to calculate the volatility of the underlying asset price of the NEEQ enterprise indirectly can solve the problem,The problem is that it is difficult to determine the volatility of the underlying asset price directly because of the low liquidity of the NEEQ market when the Black-Scholes option pricing model is used to evaluate the volatility.And the valuation result obtained from it is more accurate and reasonable than the traditional method,and the ability to interpret the stock price of the NEEQ enterprise is also stronger. |
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