The Mechanism And Empirical Test Of Economic Uncertainty Affecting The Macro Effect Of Monetary Policy

Macroeconomic uncertainty will affect the company's investment mechanism,through the expected factors to the macro economy,resulting in the weakening of macroeconomic effects of monetary policy.A large number of studies have shown that the existence of macroeconomic uncertainties has strengthened the difficulties in the operation and implementation of the central bank's monetary policy,and the effectiveness of monetary policy has been greatly reduced.Therefore,it is important to grasp the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary policy.This paper uses VAR model,impulse response and variance decomposition to systematically examine the economic uncertainty,policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty as to how the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy are affected.The results show that:(1)In the presence of uncertainty,monetary policy will have a negative impact on economic output and price stability,making the effectiveness of monetary policy lower;(2)There are differences in the degree of influence of the three uncertainties,The impact of financial uncertainty has the greatest impact on the real economy;(3)Macroeconomic uncertainties may eventually be transmitted to monetary policy through expected channels.The policy implications derived from the above conclusions are:First,according to the changes in the economic situation,the central bank should take a timely assessment of the rhythm,direction,and strength of policy control to optimize and dynamically adjust the effects of monetary policies;secondly,for the government,to promote important policies,there should be an overall view and forward-looking view,taking into account the fluctuations in the macroeconomic situation brought about by it,and formulating a control plan from a macroscopic point of view,so as to prevent policy fluctuations from having an important impact on the entire macro-economy;Thirdly,the uncertainty in the financial market is a piece of content that we often ignore but it is very important.The turmoil in the financial market will be transmitted to the real economy,which will bring about a great earthquake in the real economy.Therefore,we must improve relevant policies to maintain the financial market.stable.Finally,we will focus on the transmission of economic uncertainty by the expected channels,guide and adjust citizens'expectations in a timely manner in the event of economic uncertainty,and prevent further spread of panic.