Analysis Of The Market Driving Factors Of Toluene

Toluene is one of the most important chemicals.Its application fields involve plastics,textiles,packaging,food and so on.The end products and related products and the annual consumption of downstream products are close to 100 million tons.The industry environment is undergoing drastic changes,and the research on toluene market needs to rise from experience and qualitative level to scientific and quantitative level.In view of this,this paper attempts to analyze the causes of China's Toluene Market,the price fluctuation model,and try to establish a price trend model.In order to simplify the analysis,this paper examines the core influencing factors and analyzes them according to the VAR model.Considering the drastic change of market structure,each driving factor has different influence in different historical periods,so this paper also carries out "rolling VAR analysis"".Impulse response function analysis showed that in addition to the price of toluene on the Shanghai index has a negative impact on the response,the impact of other variables are positive response;variance decomposition found that the financial market has little influence on the price of toluene,the impact of international crude oil,imports of toluene and toluene for toluene is relatively large futures price.Rolling VAR analysis showed that the influence of variables on the price of toluene was varied.Toluene lagged value of the greatest impact,2005-2008 toluene price lag has a significant positive impact on the price of toluene,and rising in fluctuation in 2009 fell to 0.781675;influence coefficient;improved influence coefficient-2014 year in 2010 when the economic situation continues to improve;since 2015 after the price of toluene lag effect coefficient of current value began to decline in 2016,dropped to 0.724135.In terms of the enlightenment and policy implications of the study,the most significant factor in toluene is its own hysteresis value,namely the market performance of "memory" characteristics.Based on this conclusion,whenever the market fluctuates significantly,participants should be cautious in the next 2-3 trading days,and the possibility of successful operation is greater.In the external factors,crude oil price has the greatest impact on the toluene Market,and the industry needs to follow the international crude oil market.The influence of different factors varies with time,and the analyst needs to pay attention to the change of market structure,and the influence of different factors caused by this change.