Demand Uncertainty Investment Research Of Shipping Port

With the acceleration of economic globalization,shipping ports have played a vital role in global supply chain.According to statistics,80% of the world's goods are transported by sea,which increases the handling capacity of ports.In order to meet the growing shipping demand,port investors must increase investment in port capacity construction and fortify infrastructure construction in shipping ports.However,the global issues,accompanied by economic globalization,such as global warming and rising of sea level,etc.,has further aggravated the severe situation at the time when the port is facing natural disasters and has caused serious threats to the normal operation and sustainable development of shipping ports.Therefore,it is essential to build preventive investment that focuses on the prevention of natural disasters,in order to ensure the maximum benefits of the port.Based on the background of the shipping port market as a monopoly market,and under different budgetary constraints,this thesis studies the issue of port capacity and investment protection defense against natural disasters when the demand for shipping ports and the probability of natural disasters are uncertain,to provide advice of optimal strategy for shipping port investors.The remainder of thesis is organized as follows.In Chapter 1,we introduce the background and current situation of the investment research in shipping ports as well as the main works and structure of thesis.In Chapter 2,we list relevant theoretical knowledge of economics and optimization theory.In Chapter 3,under the condition of sufficient budget,we establish a two-stage game mathematical model with taking the investment volume of shipping port capacity,the investment amount of defense against natural disasters,and the operation amount of shipping port as decision variables,and maximizing the revenue of the shipping port investors as objective function,and solve it by the KKT conditions.We obtain the optimal strategy for shipping port capacity investment and defense against natural disaster investment in the face of the following three situations.First,both the port demand and probability of disaster occurrence are deterministic;Second,the port demand is uncertain while the probability of disaster occurrence is deterministic;the last,the port demand is deterministic while the probability of disaster occurrence is uncertain.In Chapter 4,under the condition of limited budget,we improve the two-phase game model by adding constraints to the mathematical model in chapter 3.With the similar discussion as in chapter 3,we obtain the optimal strategy for shipping port capacity investment and defense against natural disaster investment in the face of the same three situations as in chapter 3.At last,some of the relevant conclusions in the thesis are summarized and some ideas for further work are proposed in chapter 5.