Study On Marginal Efficiency Of Bank Loans To Economic Growth

In order to analyze the efficiency of bank credit funds,this paper selects the quarterly data of bank loans and GDP in 1992-2015,and uses the time varying parameter model of the state space model to verify the marginal efficiency is diminishing.It is found that the marginal efficiency of bank loans to economy growth in our country is less than 1,and its stage is decline.It indicates the lower marginal efficiency of bank loans in our country,and a decreasing trend.The decreasing interval is mostly same with two production capacity surplus stages.And then through using statistical methods to analyze the characteristics of China's industrial credit structure,it is found that the credit structure of industrial is unreasonable in our country.Bank loans mostly invest in capital intensive industries with excess capacity and low efficiency in the use of funds.Capital investment is precipitated into the excess capacity,and does not get effective output.Finally,it results in a lower the marginal efficiency of bank loans to economy growth.Finally,based on these characteristics,the dynamic game model of complete information is established to analyze the credit behavior of banks and enterprises.It is found that the unreasonable interference of Government to the credit market is underlying reason.Now GDP is the most important for government officials in the performance evaluation mechanism,and this is the motive of government intervention.On this basis,we put forward to change the performance evaluation mechanism of government officials dominated by GDP,and put forward the policy of loose in one item and tight in other item for banks.