The Research Of Enterprise Bond Credit Rating Method

In recent years,the bond market further expand the scale,the bond market further enhance its capability of service of the real economy.And corporate bonds as part of the bond market,has the vital role.So calculating the probability of the debt can't be paid on time is important,to provide information on risk,find a bond rating index system that suitable for China's national conditions,will do good to both investors and borrowers.The study of corporate credit rating system about corporate bonds is never interrupted,the corporate credit rating methods mainly include qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,analytic hierarchy process(ahp).Qualitative analysis mainly include the expert judgment method and comprehensive evaluation method.But this method,to a large extent,rely on rating personnel's subjective judgment,poor accuracy;So relevant personnel research a quantitative analysis method,mainly including: multivariate linear discriminant analysis model,the weighted Logistic model,Probit analysis model,the credit evaluation model based on fuzzy evaluation,neural network model,but these methods only using quantitative indicators,have certain one-sidedness.The analytic hierarchy process considers two aspects of enterprise bond credit rating: the qualitative indexes and quantitative indexes,.This article first through quantitative indicators,uses factor analysis,eliminating the correlation between indexes,then uses the cluster analysis model,finding a set of index system of credit rating,then uses the empirical analysis and compares with the results of rating agencies rating,finding that the effect is poorer;Finally adding qualitative indicators,uses the analytic hierarchy process(ahp),finding a suitable set of index system,and carries on the empirical analysis and compares with the results of rating agencies rating analysis,finding the effect is better.