An Emperical Analysis Of The Discounted Cash Flow Model Without Leverage

Value investment,it is to point to by the operating performance of listed companies to be valuation target is combined with the financial data of the prospects for the future of the development of the industry and the dynamic changes of the macroeconomic analysis,reasonable make predictions on the development of the company's future,and to use effective financial valuation valuation model is modeled,assess the intrinsic value of the enterprise.When the price is substantially lower than the intrinsic value of the stock,it retains sufficient safety margin to invest,and the long-term holding will tend to get a good excess return.This year,in the government work report,clearly put forward: to speed up the reform of financial system,gradually relaxing or cancel bank,securities,foreign shares of the fund management and other restrictions,the move means that the lower the threshold for foreign enterprises and institutions,are braced for a large number of foreign capital into China market in China.As China's capital market is accelerated to the outside world,it is urgent to draw on the mature investment management methods.Can be found that the foreign securities companies,fund companies,insurance companies and Banks are of the utmost importance for the evaluation of enterprise internal value,reasonable judgment enterprise internal value daily cash management for financial institutions and business guidance has very important significance,the concept of value investing will also gradually gained popularity in our country.At present,the internal valuation of the company has been widely used in both theoretical and practical fields.But because our country capital market still is not perfected,speculative phenomenon is very serious and valuation modeling process is relatively complex,partly due to the inconvenience hypothesis parameters of model,similar to through free cash flow discount valuation models no leverage to absolute valuation method to evaluate the intrinsic value of the enterprise did not get enough attention,even if is the use of this model,users also can appear on the applicability of the model conditions exist error,the valuation process,often do not have logic,winding assumptions with model parameters and the construction of model simplification,valuation model results often does not affect the investors to make a final investment decision.This paper select free cash flow discount valuation model,combined with guizhou moutai company,using EXCEL tool to conduct a complete financial valuation model,that may occur in the process of application of the model assumes that the parameter is not reasonable,the valuation process does not have problem such as logic,based on the practical application for the intensive discussion.According to the actual situation of our company's financial statements,can find a mature,stable earnings of the company its financial ratios are relatively stable,each able to provide theoretical basis for the parameters in the process of valuation assumptions,even on some parameter estimation problems are too simple,but its theoretical basis is still a persuasive,can eliminate the influence of parameter hypothesis too humble to model.At the same time,the article to the valuation process and individual logical problems of parameter estimation is put forward the corresponding improvement method,an empirical analysis through the applicability of the model proved the model for the mature and stable earnings like guizhou moutai company is a very effective method of valuation.Finally,the paper summarizes the factors that influence the accuracy of the model,and puts forward some Suggestions on how to improve the accuracy of the model.