The Default Risk Evaluation On Non-listed Company Bonds Of China

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's corporate credit bond market,credit bonds,as an important component of the credit bond market and the external financing channels of non-listed companies,have played an increasingly important role.Compared with bank loans,credit loans have the characteristics of initiative,risk avoidance and low cost,which make it a popular financing method for non-listed companies.However,with the continuous development of the corporate bond market in our country,the risk of default within the market is becoming increasingly prominent,and credit default events are frequent.Judging from the information on existing defaulted bonds,the defaulting bonds are mainly issued by non-listed companies,and non-listed companies are not suitable for mandatory information disclosure systems,so the risk of default is more difficult to detect.Therefore,to study the causes of default risk of non-listed companies' credit bonds and explore the overall level of default risk in the non-listed corporate bond market,then proposed measures are of great practical significance for regulating the development of China's corporate bond market.The content of the thesis is divided into six parts: The first chapter expounds the research background,research significance,domestic and foreign research reviews,research ideas and methods;Chapter 2 summarizes related theories and provides theoretical basis for the dissertation.;Chapter 3 analyzes the non-listed company's credit default characteristics of non-listed companies and the causes of non-listed companies' credit bonds defaults.It points out that the macroeconomic downturn,industrial policy shocks,the scale of credit bond sell-back,and the poor strength of guarantors,wrong corporate investment decisions,simple company business structure,instability of equity structure and a series of factors are the main reasons that leads to bond default.Chapter 4 compares the feasibility and applicability of the mainstream credit risk measurement model,and then selects PFM as the tool of the disseration.It also introduces details of the measurement process and the selection criteria of the PFM model.Chapter 5 is an empirical part.It analyzes the overall non-listed corporate credit bond market default and finds the overall default risk of non-listed corporate credit bond market.Are high and severely differentiated,default risk have spread from strong cyclical Industry to the weak cyclical industry,private enterprises are facing greater credit debt default risk and so on.Based on empirical analysis conclusions,Chapter 6 puts up with related suggestions from governments' and enterprises 'perspective,sucn as improving the information disclosure system and the credit rating system,perfecting the default penalties for debt-issuing companies,strengthening credit enhancement mechanisms,improving credit risk measurement technologies,etc.also,controlling the scale of corporate liabilities and keeping companies' stability are mentioned.So as to provide advice for related subject.