Some Evaluation Methods For The Outstanding Claims Reserve Based On Fuzzy Linear Regression Models

Outstanding claims as an important part of non life insurance are often with the “ long tail ” characteristics.Due to the claims from the accident to the end often need to go through a relatively long time.The extraction of insurance companies' outstanding claims reserves is reasonable,which is directly related to their ability of compensation and financial status.It can be said that the loss reserving is the one of the most important liability of non-life insurance companies on the balance sheet.Because China' s insurance industry started relatively late,the development is relatively backward.Most of non-life insurance companies exist issues such as lack of historical data,lack of accumulation of industry data and false data.In this situation,non-life insurance companies use classical reserve estimation method to estimate reserve that will produce large error.Because outstanding claims are the long-tail business,its forecasts of future payments depend on the insurance business realities and actuarial experience and judgment,and the system' s own randomness,which determines the outstanding loss reserve estimates are fuzzy.Therefore,the author tries to blur the link ratio of the chain-ladder method,introducing the fuzzy linear regression model to evaluate the outstanding claims reserve.Based on the fuzzy set theory,this paper will use mathematical modeling and actuarial knowledge,using the comparative analysis method to study the application of the traditional chain-ladder method and fuzzy linear regression model in outstanding claims reserve evaluation.In the two part,the application of fuzzy linear regression model in the evaluation of outstanding claims reserve is discussed,and its application effect is evaluated.