Pipeline Geological Hazard Risk Assessment System In Gully Region

In recent years,with the rapid development of oil and gas pipeline construction,the danger to pipeline safety which created by geological hazards is becoming more and more notable.A lot of facts indicated that the pipeline geological hazards(such as collapse,landslide,debris flow and gully waterpower damaging disaster)threating pipeline security mostly distributed in gully regions.This article takes Sebei-Xining-Lanzhou Gas Pipeline as an example to research on the risk assessment of pipeline geological hazards in the gully regions.Firstly,the paper gives an investigation and analysis on the pipeline's existing environment,and studys on the development characteristics of pipeline geological hazards in the gully area.Then on the basis of natural disaster risk assessment theory,the thesis applies data mining method to select hazard assessment indexes of pipeline geological disasters,and uses scoring index method,factor-added method and risk matrix method to set up the risk assessment and classification system of pipeline geological hazards through comparing the risk assessment means and theoretical analysis.Risk assessment of pipeline geological hazards includes probabilistic risk assessment and pipeline failure consequence assessment.Probabilistic risk assessment models are based on factor-added method,synthesized by index weight and risk score.Assessment of pipeline failure consequence uses W.Kent Muhlbauer's model as its calculation model.Risk classification system uses risk matrix which incorporated the two assessment results to divide the disaster risk into 5 risk grades.It can be seen from the examples for pipeline geological hazards risk assessment and classification that the method is feasible.