The Study Of The Debris Flow Loss And Its Risk Management In Yunnan Province

Among many natural caused disasters,debris flow is a kind of sudden disaster with large economic disaster and large disaster recovery period.This kind of disaster not only has a serious negative impact on our life,but also on the national economy.It is related to the interests of the people in the area.Although China has paid close attention to disaster prevention infrastructure construction,but the devastation of debris flow is extremely powerful,there is still possibility of the breakthrough of the existing debris flow defense facilities,resulting in the possibility of loss of national economy.We must pay more attention to the research of debris flow disaster and the economic losses it caused to strengthen the rescue measure after the disaster and offer relief funds timely.Therefore,a reasonable measure of economic losses of debris flow is our urgent need for us to make appropriate rescue methods.Based on the historical data of debris flow in Yunnan Province from 1990 to 2015,this paper analyzes the disaster factors and economic loss of debris flow in Yunnan Province by means of statistical software and gray model and artificial neural network.The main contents are as follows:1.Analyzing the data of debris flow in Yunnan Province and the influence of disaster factors and economic data on the economic losses in Yunnan Province by EXCEL.Drawing with Matlab,and Analyzing the main factor of the disaster data in Yunnan Province by correlation analysis.2.Choosing three factors which has the most influence to the economic loss of the debris flow and using them as the input layer of the neural network model,and it is used to analyze the economic loss of the debris flow in Yunnan Province.In view of the BP neural network model will fall into the local optimal defects,this paper choose the genetic algorithm to improve the model.The accuracy of the measure of economic loss of the debris flow in Yunnan Province will also be improved,which makes it more practical value in the work of the rescue.Based on the characteristics of the economic loss of debris flow in Yunnan Province,we will give some suggestions on risk management and the relief work of debris flow in Yunnan Province.