| The process of stock investment is the process of the reasonable expectation of the future value of the stock and the selection of the most investment value stock.In this paper,we puts forward that the stock selection model based on investor behavior analysis should have good selection effect under the condition of multi factor.The main reasons are the following three aspects:from the perspective of the stock investment,investors based on personal experience to determine the future price of the stock.Any decision based on risk,will associate with the weight of each factor.From strategies of stock selection,the factors of company development,financial condition and stock price,stock trading momentum are the main indicators for investors in the daily stock investment.At the same time,the stock price is determined by the stock demand and supply of the investment decisions made by different investors.ELMAN model is a probability statistical model based on computer to analyze the possibility of different conditions.Model to calculate the future value of the stock,by the analysis of relationship between the weighting of 13 stocks indicators and stock price.The daily trading data of January 2015-January of 2016 is used as the analysis data of generating model,and the data of daily trading in the year of January 2016 is used to determine whether the model is effective.Through the analysis of the data empirical test,we can get the following conclusions:the ELMAN model selected for the rise of the stock portfolio in the future earnings is higher than the average return of the market index.From the analysis of the model,the results of the calculation of each stock factor weight are consistent with the results of statistical analysis. |
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