The Effect Of Fiscal Policy On Monetary Transmission Mechanism In China Based On VADL Model

From the reform and opening up in 1978 to the economy in 2016 into the "new normal",the Chinese economy in the past 30 years has made great development.In the past 30 years,monetary policy and fiscal policy as a means of national macro-control have been lack of experience from the early stages of reform and opening up.They have experienced "Loose","elastic",stable and flexible and flexible application.Pay attention to the impact of policy lag,in the face of different periods,different economic situation,the two sides also pay more attention to coordination,attention to each other's decision-making behavior.At present,China's economic development in the shift period,the pain period,the two major policy authorities of the dynamic game on economic development is a very important impact.In view of this,this paper first combs the literature on economic growth and financial policy at home and abroad,and finds out that the domestic and foreign scholars use the St.Louis equation,VAR model and Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model,taking into account these three models The existence of "gender",that is,the inertia and lag of economic variables,and the use of these three models may be dynamic inconsistency,and this dynamic inconsistency is likely due to fiscal policy caused,in view of this,this paper that(VADL)model can be constructed on the basis of autoregressive distribution model.Then,the neutral theory and non-neutral theory of money and the four major currencies are used to construct the variable-coefficient autoregressive distribution lag(VADL)model.Finally,the core model of this paper is constructed,and the quarterly data from 2002 to 2016 are used as the basis of analysis,and the unit root test,cointegration test and Du Bin-Wu-Hausman(DWH)test are carried out in turn,And finally analyzes the efficiency of monetary policy in fiscal policy.The study shows that the quarterly fiscal deficit policy developed by the financial authorities has positive and negative effects on the efficiency of the money transmission mechanism,and the images arc inverted "U".Moreover,When a negative quarter deficit 710 billion yuan,the money transmission rate was the slowest,but the monetary policy had the greatest effect on GDP transmission.When the quarterly fiscal revenue was equal to the quarterly fiscal expenditure,the money transmission rate was the fastest,but the total effect The smallest,the currency was neutral;the emergence of fiscal surplus relative to the small-scale fiscal deficit will delay the currency to the real economy transmission speed.To this end,this paper suggests that the two major policy authorities should take into account the other party's policy actions when formulating macroeconomic policies.The monetary authorities should take into account the impact of fiscal deficits on monetary transmission efficiency and delay in order to make policy decisions rationally.And suggested that when the market economy system is perfect,the economy is in healthy development,you can consider the quarterly fiscal balance of the policy means.