Cointegration Analysis Of Factors Influencing Economic Growth In China Based On Time Series Data

Recently,China's economic growth as a whole shows a good trend of sustained development,showing stronger toughness and stability,which has provided good conditions for gradually improving people's living standards and achieving common prosperity.Therefore,speeding up the steady economic growth is not only the fundamental guarantee for China's long-term stability,but also the fundamental condition for China's international status.Over the years,many scholars have studied the economic growth from different angles by many methods,but the conclusions are very different because of different data and variables.Consumption,investment,and foreign trade are the "Three Engines" to promote China's economic growth.Among them,investment in fixed assets is an effective means to ensure the vitality of social economy;however,in recent years,consumption growth has become the primary driving force for domestic economic development,and as a major force,online consumption has maintained a rapid development;in addition,imports and exports of foreign trade have grown moderately and steadily in the global economy,along with the implementation of the "One Belt and One Road",it will be beneficial to expand domestic product exports,improve the competitiveness of the international market,and promote the continuous improvement of China's foreign trade.In summary,these are the key to promote the stable development of China's economy.This article will start with the three factors affecting economic growth.After reviewing previous research on related literature,based on the economic data from 1981 to 2015,using the theory of cointegration analysis,through the use of unit root test,VAR model establishment,Cointegration test,error correction model establishment,Granger causality test,impulse response function,and variance decomposition method to analyze long-term and short-term relationships among variables.Research shows that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between the three factors and economic growth,and that household consumption has the most significant effect on economic growth.In the short term,their impact on economic growth ranged from high to low in order of fixed asset investment,household consumption and foreign trade.And the growth of fixed asset investment is the cause of Granger's economic growth and household consumption growth,the economic growth is also the cause of Granger's consumption growth and fixed asset investment growth.In addition,in the contribution of variance,household consumption has a major contribution to economic growth,followed by fixed asset investment and foreign trade.These conclusions are of great significance in promoting China's economic transformation and upgrading.Finally,based on the above empirical analysis,the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to promote the sustained,stable and healthy growth of China's economy.Firstly,expand consumption demand,improve consumption patterns,optimize consumption space to increase residents' spending power and further stimulate economic growth.Secondly,adhere to technological innovation,cultivate new driving forces,adjust industrial structure,maintain steady growth of fixed asset investment,and promote economic development.Thirdly,we will implement an active import policy,focus on improving the structure of export products,innovate the development model of foreign trade,and actively transform our country into a trading power,which will in turn drive economic growth.In addition,making good use of the advantages of the Internet,while combining the mobile Internet with traditional industries,actively establish overseas warehouses to allow more e-commerce enterprises to go abroad and stimulate the rapid development of the economy.