Risk Assessment For Rainstorm And Flood Catastrophe And The Design Of Catastrophe Bond

The heavy rain and flood disasters caused by global warming have seriously affected the daily life of the people in the world and the healthy development of the national economy.The economic reconstruction work of the rainstorm and flood disaster in China is also mainly undertaken by the government aid and social donation.Compared with many western developed countries,China's insurance industry has a relatively low level of insurance compensation.The major disaster risk loss in China is mainly made up of national financial compensation,so the fluctuation of catastrophe loss will cause the instability of the financial budget,and the loss compensation also has a big gap.Therefore,it is very urgent to scientifically assess the risk of catastrophe,to share the risk of catastrophic catastrophe reasonably,to set up the heavy rain and flood catastrophe bond and to establish and improve the risk dispersion mechanism of the rainstorm and flood disaster.Based on the current situation of rainstorm and flood disaster in China,this paper discusses the necessity of constructing the risk sharing system of rainstorm and flood disaster at the present stage in China and the urgency of the issuance of heavy rain and flood catastrophe bonds.The theories and methods of catastrophe risk assessment based on different logical starting points are summarized,synthesized and compared.Based on the direct economic loss data of rainstorm and flood disaster in China from 2000 to 2016,the catastrophe risk assessment model based on risk loss is selected,and the normal transformation method such as Box-Cox transformation and Johnson transformation is used,and Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the direct economic loss of rainstorm and flood disaster,and the preliminary design of risk sharing level for rainstorm and flood disaster is completed.Based on trigger mechanism and pricing mechanism,the design of catastrophe bonds is studied.From the perspective of issuers of catastrophe bonds,the costs and benefits of different kinds of catastrophe bonds issued under different circumstances are analyzed.Based on the rainstorm and flood disaster loss distribution model,three different types of catastrophe bonds are calculated according to the capital asset pricing model(CAPM),and the price of bondsunder different periods is calculated according to the cash flow discount model,and the pricing design of heavy rain and flood catastrophe bond is completed preliminarily.The direct economic losses of rainstorm and flood disasters in various provincial administrative regions were fitted,and the direct economic losses of rainstorm and flood disasters in each region were evaluated with Monte Carlo simulation.Different triggers are set up in different target areas for rainstorm,flood and catastrophe bonds,and the design of storm flood and catastrophe bonds has been perfected.