| Inland navigation has always been an important part of the transportation industry.Shipping and economic development are inseparable,and the booming area of shipping is usually more developed.The upper Yangtze River trunk line shipping is an important transportation corridor connecting the eastern and western parts of China.Shipping demand is driven by economic factors.Meanwhile,the level of shipping development will also be limited by factors such as channel capacity and other factors.The concept of shipping carrying capacity is introduced to explore the driving force and limiting factors of the shipping development in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,to provide decision-making support for the shipping planning of the related departments,and to optimize the allocation of shipping resources,and to achieve the efficient use of water resources in the Yangtze River.On the basis of in-depth study of the evaluation method of carrying capacity of resources at home and abroad,this paper puts forward the evaluation method of shipping carrying capacity,and integrates the GIS spatial data visualization technology to integrate the shipping carrying capacity evaluation module and develop the evaluation platform for shipping carrying capacity.Finally,the paper applies the example of the evaluation of the carrying capacity of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The paper first puts forward the problem of shipping carrying capacity,analyzes the development process of shipping,discusses the connotation of shipping carrying capacity,and constructs the evaluation model of shipping carrying capacity mainly from the shipping demand and through capacity,and puts forward the corresponding evaluation index and evaluation standard.In view of the general situation of shipping development in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,a large number of basic data of shipping economic data and channel elements in the region have been collected for years,the shipping demand driven model is established and the water transport volume in the future year is predicted.At the same time,the passage capacity of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is calculated to judge the shipping demand and channel of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The balance of resources supply is used to evaluate the carrying capacity of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.Through the study,In the three sections of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,the bearing condition of the Yibin C hongqing section is the worst.The shipping carrying capacity of Yibin to Chongqing section of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in 2020 has been in a critical overload condition.The shipping capacity of this section in the following year is in a serious overloading state.The shipping capacity of C hongqing to Fuling section is in the balance zone of shipping resources before 2020.With the growth of year,the carrying capacity becomes worse and is in the shipping capital.In the source deficit area,the supply of shipping can not meet the needs of the customers.The shipping capacity of Fuling-Yichang section was in the surplus area of shipping resources before 2025,and was in the surplus zone from 2025 to 2030,and it was in the shipping resource deficit area after 2030.The second part of the paper is about the development and utilization of the evaluation platform of shipping carrying capacity.GIS technology has been developed and applied in many related fields.ArcGIS Engine is a new generation of component development technology,contains rich GIS function class library,combined with the Microsoft Corp C# Win Form form technology,can easily and quickly develop the system to meet the needs of users.Using this technology,the function of the system and its module is first designed.The system includes the basic function module of GIS,the cargo demand analysis module,the channel passing capacity module and the comprehensive evaluation module of the shipping capacity,and the core function module integrates the basic theory of the evaluation of the shipping capacity.After the completion of the function module design,the design and implementation of the system interface is carried out,the implementation of core function modules utilizes C# and MATLAB hybrid programming technology,Finally,the platform is applied to the case study of the upper Yangtze River’s carrying capacity.The platform can be applied to other river basin’s carrying capacity analysis.Finally,the related conclusions and techniques are summarized and prospected. |