Construction And Application Of Flood Forecasting Scheme In Le'an River Basin

Le'an River is the name before the Raohe bring in chang River.It originated from Wuyuan County,Shangrao City,and then passed through Wuyuan County and Dexing County of Shangrao City,Leping City of Jingdezhen City,and Youyang County of Shangrao City.The basin is located in the rainstorm area in northeastern Jiangxi Province?between Wuyishan and Bad Yushan?,and it is a basin with frequent floods and droughts.The Lebanese River flood plains generally have low flood control standards,and the economic losses caused by floods over the years are large.Therefore,research on flood forecasting schemes in the Leian River Basin must be strengthened to provide scientific basis for flood control decisions in the basin and minimize flood damages.Economic loss.I have been engaged in flood forecasting in the Le'an River Basin since 2010 and have been exposed to the flood forecasting program before the Le'an River Basin.I fully feel the wisdom of our predecessors and hope that through my own understanding of the flood forecasting work in the Le'an River,The flood forecasting program for the basin was reintegrated and a flood forecasting system suitable for the basin was established to provide reference for flood forecasting in the basin.This paper mainly takes the Hushan hydrological station of the Le'an River Control Station as the research object,and studies the forecasting scheme of this station.The research methods and the main conclusions are as follows:?1?The preparation of the empirical forecast program for the Le'an River is mainly to study the exploration of the corresponding water level method and the use of the rainfall runoff method at the hydrological station,and at the same time to revisit the original method of correlation of precipitation peaks and five variables.The comparison of the actual operation forecast results through the three empirical schemes shows that the rainfall runoff empirical correlation method and the rainfall flood peak five-variant correlation method have good application effects and can reach the requirements of the Grade A program.The corresponding water level method has a large number of sub-flows into the tributaries,and its application effectis general.It can meet the requirements of the Grade B program and can be used as a reference.?2?According to the principle of basin top-down,this paper divides the Le'an River basin into three forecast sections and 26 calculation units.In the basin above each forecasting section,the production flow is calculated according to the Three Sources Full Production Model?SMS₃?.After the production flow is calculated,the basin lag calculation model?LAG₃?is used to calculate the slope confluence,and the network convergence is using Muskingum?MSK?.The method of simulation forecasting,simulation and forecasting shows that: the establishment of the Le'an River Sanshui Xin'anjiang model forecasting effect is better,and in the growth forecast period,process forecasting are better than the empirical model,can be used in the promotion of the basin.At the same time,with the continuous extension of the new hydrological site data series of the tributaries of the Le'an River in recent years,the program can be further refined.