Study On The Prediction Of Time And Space Of The Rainfall Type Landslides In The North Slope Of West Open Pit

Landslide disaster has been a geological problem that hinders economic development and human safety.How to reduce and prevent disaster is a difficult problem for researchers worldwide.In the investigation of casualties in geological disasters every year,one third is caused by landslide.Especially in the extreme climate anomalies and human engineering disturbed growing conditions,how to prevent the landslide causing hazards heavy casualties becomes the priority among geological disaster prevention and reduction.This paper taking the North Slope of Fushun West open pit as an example,aiming to study from three aspects of time,space and rainfall influence.The main conclusions of the main research contents,methods and application results are as follows:(1)Through STRM elevation data of China area that is downloaded from geospatial data cloud and Spatial analysis function using GIS software,the study area is divided into 1848 grids.This paper brings about risk zoning of the North Slope of Fushun West open pit on ArcGIS operation platform.Through the analysis of historical landslide data and landslide profile map,lithology,slope height,fault influence,slope,slope direction and artificial influence are taken as influencing factors of the North Slope of Fushun West open pit.The information model is used to calculate the correlation between each impact factor and the occurrence of landslide.Using the overlay analysis function of ArcGIS,the information size of each grid is calculated.According to the magnitude of information,the study area is divided into dangerous area,less dangerous area,less stable area and stable area.Through calculation,it is concluded that the first grade of the biggest influence on the North Slope of Fushun West open pit is the influence of lithology.For Fushun landslide two indicators are the greatest impact of fault gouge and breccia.The worst correlation between landslide and landslide is slope 0-8 degree.After the amount of information is calculated,the areas with greater danger are mainly concentrated on the intersection of slope surface and artificial activity.(2)According to the static monitoring data of landslide GPS obtained by Liaoning Environmental Monitoring Station,the landslide in the North Slope of Fushun West open pit basically belongs to the medium and small landslide,applying to short term prediction model of landslide.Decision of landslide displacement prediction uses three exponential smoothing method and regression analysis method.Through the curve fitting and error comparison,the multiple regression analysis model has better fitting effect than the three exponential smoothing model.At the same time,the prediction results are more accurate.The multiple regression analysis model is used as the time prediction model of the North Slope of Fushun West open pit.(3)Through the study of historical landslide data,many landslides are related to rainfall.In this paper,the mathematical statistics method is used to calculate the equation between the rainfall and the landslide probability.Compared with the landslide history data,the accuracy rate is 82%,and the model has good accuracy.At the same time,through the statistical analysis of rainfall data and landslide data,using the two element regression analysis model,the formula of rainfall critical value is calculated.(4)Through the introduction of the critical rainfall index R and the landslide occurrence index L,the early warning and prediction of the rainfall type landslides in the North Slope of Fushun West open pit can be studied.Through the calculation of the critical rainfall index in the study area,the possibility of landslide in the study area must be judged.If there is possibility of landslides,the possibility of landslide in each cell should be calculated.The ArcGIS software is used for visualization,and the early-warning area is divided according to the calculation results.