Evaluation And Prediction Of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of Qinzhou-Fangchenggang Coastal Zone

The research of comprehensive carrying capacity at coastal zone is the main basis of main function division of coastal zone and marine.It is an important fundamental role for the rational development layout and the appropriate development intensity of the coastal zone and the maintenance and promotion of the sustainable development and utilization of coastal zone resources and environment and the coordinated development of man-sea relationship.It reflects the overall bearing capacity of the coastal zone environment,resources,ecological system for various types of human activities from a comprehensive perspective.In order to understand the endurance of the resources,environment and ecosystem of qinzhou-fangchenggang coastal zone for the human activities and whether it will exceed the regional comprehensive carrying capacity in accordance with the current development and utilization strength in the future,this paper conducts field and statistical investigations of the related indicators that reflect the regional economy,society,resources and environment of qinzhou-fangchenggang coastal zone.In addition,it clears the current ecological environment status and main pressure and key problems with the advancement of urbanization and industrialization in the research area,evaluates the current situation of comprehensive carrying capacity in the study area and to predict the future development trend.It provides scientific basis and technical support for development layout,environmental management and main functional zoning plan of coastal zone.First of all,based on the existing research results at home and abroad,this paper reviews the research status and progress of comprehensive carrying capacity,and on this basis,the research route,research methods and research contents of this paper are proposed.At the same time,the general situation of the research area is described in five aspects: geographical location,natural geography,resource development and utilization,environment,social and economic situation,etc.by geographical location,natural geography,the resources development and utilization situation for laying a foundation for the research of comprehensive bearing capacity evaluation and prediction.Secondly,through using the existing evaluation indicator systems of the bearing capacity both at home and abroad and the actual situation of the data collected in the study area,and basing on the conceptual model of P-S-R,this paper constructs the comprehensive bearing capacity evaluation indicator system that accords with regional characteristics.At the same time,this paper introduces data sources and processes the initial data,namely,determines the standardization of data and the indicator weight coefficient.Around the comprehensive bearing capacity evaluation,taking regional as the guiding ideology,and using the method of state space model,this paper evaluates the comprehensive carrying capacity of the four coastal counties,including Qinnan District,Fangcheng District,Gangkou District and Dongxing city,in 2010,2012,2014 and 2016.The result shows that the comprehensive bearing capacity of the four regions in the evaluation year is in a loadable state.Thirdly,based on the status evaluation results of comprehensive carrying capacity in the study area,using grey prediction model,this paper predicts the comprehensive bearing capacity of the research area in 2018 and 2020.The forecast results are that the carrying capacity of the Qinan District will be overloaded in 2018 and 2020,while the carrying capacity of the Fangcheng District in 2018 and 2020 will be available,and the Gangkou District and Dongxing city will be available in 2018 and overloaded in 2020.In this paper,the residual test of the model is carried out,the residual relative value of the model is less than 20%,the average residual error is less than 10%,and the average accuracy is greater than 90%,which indicates that the prediction model is of good performance.Fourthly,the present situation and forecast results of the comprehensive bearing capacity of the four counties are analyzed respectively,through the secondary indicator contribution find the key factors influencing the change of bearing capacity and accordingly put forward the corresponding effective measures.The development trend of the future is judged to grasp the resource development intensity accordingly and put forward scientific and reasonable policy suggestions for the effective coordinated development of economic society,resources and environment.