Preliminary Study On Real Time Earthquake Prediction Technology In Earthquake Early Warning

Earthquake early warning is a practical and effective technology for preventing and reducing disaster.For improving the timeliness,accuracy and robustness of the earthquake early warning system in dealing with large earthquakes,multiple earthquakes in different places,multiple ruptured earthquakes and other complex earthquakes,based on the new idea of earthquake early warning proposed by Japanese scholar Hoshiba and others,real-time shake prediction is used for earthquake early warning in this paper.This method does not need to calculate and estimate any seismic source information,including the location,magnitude,time of earthquake,which avoids the phenomenon of magnitude saturation in earthquake early warning in response to large earthquakes and error accumulation in seismic location,magnitude estimation,attenuation model calculation and prediction intensity.It also provides a new way to solve the problem of false alarm and omission when the earthquake early warning system is dealing with complex earthquakes with multiple earthquakes and multiple ruptures in different places.This method makes full use of real-time seismic data and gets interpolation on space area,which based on the background error and observation error,at the same time,corrects by Data Assimilation technology in real-time continuously,and we get the accurate simulation in real time vibration field finally,according to the real-time accurate simulation of ground motion field,we simulate the process of seismic wave propagation and attenuation based on the Radiative Transfer Theory through Monte Carlo method,and then according to the wave simulation calculation and estimate the biggest possible ground vibration for target area,finally publish warning alarm after a threshold value judgment.what's more,the whole process in real time and continuously updated online.Based on the foregoing earthquake early warning framework,this paper conducts application research,mainly including the following aspects:(1)The simulation application of earthquake early-warning method based on realtime seismic prediction in real history seismic cases is realized.Based on the sufficient research Data Assimilation technology(DA),the Radiative Transfer Theory(RTT)and the method of Monte Carlo(MC),make the preparation of the program and debug on the basis of the "3.11" earthquake,and we realized the using of earthquake early warning simulation method in this paper with different thresholds and other rules.(2)We proposed an optimization model framework of earthquake early warning technology based on real-time shake prediction.For applying the method as soon as possible in our country,in this paper,we used the inverse distance interpolation method which has a lower stations uniformity requirement,this improved the applicability of the proposed method.we determined the optimization model of this method ultimately by analyzes the various factors influence,such as model space division,the wave energy simulation of particle number and so on.(3)We demonstrated the effect of the method in this paper from different angels,which include earthquake in the network,earthquake out of the network and complex multi-earthquake,though simulation of different earthquake events and we get the conclusion finally.We have conclusion that the method can effectively cope with any earthquake,but the timeliness is weak when dealing with the earthquake out of the network,and the method is especially suitable for the complex multi-earthquake,it has strong advantages in stable and efficient when dealing with the complex multi-earthquake.(4)we explored the seamless connection between earthquake early warning technology and intensity rapid report technology in this paper's method.According to the characteristics of this method,we have been obtained the regional intensity distribution in the process of earthquake early warning simulation,so that this method could provide systematic information for disaster emergency services.