Research On The Prediction Of Potential Suitable Distribution Of Biomphalaria Straminea In Guangdong Province

The globalization of economy and trade and the intensification of the frequent flow of population in the world have created conditions for the spread of infectious diseases and exotic species.In 1981,Biomphalaria straminea,the intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni,was first discovered in C hina mainland(Shenzhen and Hongkong junction area).In 2012,the survey found that the specie has existed in Shenzhen,Dongguan,Huizhou and other cities around of them,and there is a tendency to continue to spread.Biomphalaria is the only intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni,some experts believe that China already has the conditions for the spread of schistosomiasis mansoni.Prediction of the potential distribution of Biomphalaria straminea,to prevent the snail into the suitable living area,is the key and foundation to formulate measures to prevent and control the spread of Schistosomiasis mansoni.It can provide a reference for the investigation of snail sampling in the region,It is also the premise of monitoring the proliferation of straminea.Therefore,it is important to predict the potential suitable area of the snail,which can be used for the prevention and control of the spread of Schistosomiasis mansoni.And that can provide decision support for the further diffusion of the snail.In this paper,Guangdong Province is selected as the study area,and the niche model was used to predict the potential suitable area of Biomphalaria straminea.Based on the temporal and spatial evolution pattern and process of the distribution of the snail,the presence data and background data of the snail,the geographic information system(GIS)technique,and a presence background learning algorithm(PBL),Artificial Neural Networks(ANN)and Maximum Entropy Modeling(Maxent),To predict the potential suitable distribution of snail.Finally,the appropriate distribution map is drawn,and compared the accuracy and reliability of models,judged the model.The main results of this paper are as follows:(1)In this paper,we mainly predict the potential distribution of the Biomphalaria straminea in Guangdong Province.However,the results are different.For the prediction chart of Maxent algorithm,the prediction results of PBL and ANN show scatter distribution.And the results of the Maxent model are continuous surface distribution.(2)From the sampling point suitability results of presence snails,The suitability probability,93.5% of the sampling points predicted by the Maxent,is higher than that of the PBL model,and the 95.7% of sampling point suitability is higher than that predicted by the ANN model.98% of sampling points Suitability results of the PBL are higher than ANN.(3)From the sampling points suitability of absence snail,35% of the sample points,suitability results from Maxent prediction is higher that of ANN;35% of the sample points,suitability results from Maxent prediction is higher than that of ANN;71% of the sample points suitability results from PBL results is higher than that of ANN.In this study,three kinds of niche models used in the prediction of potential suitable distribution of Biomphalaria straminea.The Maxent is the most widely used model in the traditional habitat prediction.The suitability of the sampling points is higher than that of the other two models from the prediction map.However,from the suitable distributio n results,higher suitable areas are presented polygon;The PBL and ANN are scattered and they are suitable for a wide range.This study provides a reference for the prediction of potential suitable distribution of Biomphalaria straminea.