| With the rapid social-economic development,the explosive population growth,the continuous expansion of industrial and agricultural production and the acceleration of urbanization,there have existed many problems including water resources shortage,water environment pollution,ecosystem degradation and so on in Yellow river basin which directly threatened the sustainable development of social economy and the virtuous cycle of ecological environment.Therefore,it is vital to carry out the reach on load balance evaluation of water resource allocation schemes.The reach could provide scientific reference for solving the regional contradiction of water resources supply and demand and realizing the load balance allocation of water resources.In this paper,we first summarized the development of water resources carrying capacity and then proposed the concept and connotation of water resource load balance system and constructed the evaluation index system considering four respects of quantity,quality,watershed and flow.The evaluation index is divided into five criteria and the grade standard is determined.We determined index weight adopting entropy weight method and evaluated index scores using the normalized cloud model to calculate load rating and carrying capacity scores.According to the water resource characteristics of the Yellow River basin and the current situation of water resource utilization and allocation in 2015,we evaluated the loading status and load balance degree of water resources in different prefectural-level cities and presented water resources control measures.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the four aspects of quantity,quality,watershed and flow,an evaluation index system of water resource load balance was constructed.The evaluation index system included 18 evaluation indexes,the load indexes included utilization ratio of water resources,water consumption of ten thousand Yuan industrial value-added,water shortage rate,water consumption per capita,COD,ammonium nitrogen concentrations,coefficient of groundwater exploitation,water shortage rate of ecological environment.The carrying capacity indexes included per capita water resource,average water resource quantity of each acre,droughtindex,utilization coefficient of irrigation water,river length ratio of excellent quality water,sewage treatment rate,water area rate,drainage density,water supplement ratio of ecological environment.The grade standard is determined.(2)Because Hyper entropy is not unified in cloud model,we combined normalized indicators and normal cloud model,and then put forward water resource load index evaluation method,calculation formula of load score,carrying capacity score and load equilibrium degree.Index weight was determined by entropy weight method.(3)The water resources loading status evaluation based on quantity-quality-watershedflow results of cities in Yellow River indicated these conclusions : In the dimension of quantity,the amount of cities in class ? is 0,the amount of cities in class ? is 8,13.3%,the amount of cities in class ? is 23,38.3%,the amount of cities in class ? is 25,41.7%,the amount of cities in class ? is 4,6.7%,the cities in class ? and class ? mainly distributed in Gansu,Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Henan.In the dimension of quality,the amount of cities in class ? is 1,1.7%,the amount of cities in class ? is 6,10%,the amount of cities in class ?is 43,71,7%,the amount of cities in class ? is 3,5%,the amount of cities in class ? is 0,the cities in class ? and class ? mainly distributed in Gansu,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi.In the dimension of watershed,the amount of cities in class ? is 0,the amount of cities in class ? is1,1.7%,the amount of cities in class ? is 11,18.3%,the amount of cities in class ? is31,51.7%,the amount of cities in class ? is 10,16.7%,the cities in class ? and class ?mainly distributed in whole basin.In the dimension of flow,the amount of cities in class ? is0,the amount of cities in class ? is 4,6.7%,the amount of cities in class ? is 18,30%,the amount of cities in class ? is 33,55%,the amount of cities in class ? is 9,15%,the cities in class ? and class ? mainly distributed in whole basin.In the dimension of comprehensive score,the amount of cities in class ? is 0,the amount of cities in class ? is 4,6.7%,the amount of cities in class ? is 23,38.3%,the amount of cities in class ? is 33,55%,the amount of cities in class ? is 0,the cities in class ? and class ? mainly distributed in Gansu,Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi and Shandong.(4)The water resources loading balance degree evaluation based on quantity-qualitywatershed-flow results of cities in Yellow River indicated these conclusions:In the dimension of quantity,the amount of cities which has carrying capacity potential is8,13%,the amount of cities in critical state is 11,18.3%,the amount of cities in overloading or serious overloading state is 41,68.3%,the cities in overloading or serious overloading state mainly distributed in whole basin.In the dimension of quality,the amount of cities which has carrying capacity potential is 18,30%,the amount of cities in critical state is 20,33.3%,the amount of cities in overloading or serious overloading state is 22,36.7%,the cities inoverloading or serious overloading state mainly distributed in Gansu,Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Henan.In the dimension of watershed,the amount of cities which has carrying capacity potential is 8,13.3%,the amount of cities in critical state is 8,13.3%,the amount of cities in overloading or serious overloading state is 44,73.3%,the cities in overloading or serious overloading state mainly distributed in whole basin.In the dimension of flow,the amount of cities which has carrying capacity potential is 11,18.3%,the amount of cities in critical state is 7,11.7%,the amount of cities in overloading or serious overloading state is 42,70%,the cities in overloading or serious overloading state mainly distributed in whole basin.In the dimension of comprehensive loading balance degree,the amount of cities which has carrying capacity potential is 7,11%,the amount of cities in critical state is8,13.3%,the amount of cities in overloading or serious overloading state is 45,75%,the cities in overloading or serious overloading state mainly distributed in whole basin. |
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