Research Of Geological Disaster Forecast Model Based On Fuzzy Rules

In recent years,geological disasters occurred frequently in China,which have not only seriously threatened the safety of people’s life and property but also restricted the sustainable development of social economy.In order to reduce and avoid the casualties and economic losses caused by geological disasters,it has become a developing trend to apply geological disaster forecast systems to frequent geological disaster areas.The traditional geological disaster forecast system has a single instrument layout,which leads to inaccurate model forecast.The National Scientific and Technological Plan from medium and long terms(2006-2020)identified the key fields including "Technical Support for Rapid Response to Emergency Public Events and Emergency Disposal",and the priority topics including "monitoring and early warning techniques for major disasters and comprehensive risk analysis and assessment techniques".Therefore,this paper proposed a geological disaster forecast model based on fuzzy rules.This paper firstly took landslide-type and debris flow-type geological disasters as examples,analyzed the main factors to landslide-type geological disasters involved in rainfall,landslide body surface displacement,soil moisture content and earth pressure,analyzed the main factors to debris flow-type geological disasters involved in infrasound,disconnection,rainfall,and mud.On this basis,a geological disaster forecast system was designed,including a landslide-type and debris flow-type geological disaster forecast system.The forecast system of landslide-type geological disasters is designed,which consists of wireless terminals,wireless earth pressure,wireless soil moisture content,wireless rainfall,and other collection terminals,on-site warning terminals,and central stations.The forecast system of debris flow geological disasters is designed,which consists of wireless infrasound,wireless disconnection,wireless mud and wireless rainfall collection terminals,on-site warning terminals,and a central station.In order to facilitate the application and promotion,the hardware of each terminal of the system is integrated,including the circuit design of the microprocessor minimum system,power supply module,wireless communication module,storage and data acquisition interface,and the landslide-type and the debris flow-type geological disaster software are separately designed.Then,the stability equation of the mountain structure was analyzed,a landslide-type geological disaster forecasting model based on fuzzy rules wasestablished,the debris flow velocity equation was analyzed,and the debris flow-type geological disaster forecasting model based on fuzzy rules was established,and the simulation was performed using Matlab software.Gradient descent method and neural network optimize the landslide and debris flow forecasting model based on fuzzy rules.At last,this paper takes Jingxian County as a landslide-type geological disaster research area,and the forecast accuracy of forecast model based on fuzzy rule,forecast model based on gradient descent method-fuzzy rule and forecast model based on neural network-fuzzy rule was verified.The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the forecast model based on the gradient descent method is as high as 90%,which is obviously higher than that of the other two models.At the same time,the method of grade forecasting is used to issue forecast information from the central station to the decision makers,which provides valuable reference for decision makers.