Research On Debris Flow Risk Early Warning Model And Its Application

With the improvement of science and technology,the technical means based on various large data on the Internet not only play an increasingly important role in people's daily life,but also show its unprecedented advantages in various aspects of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction.Debris flow,one of the most common geological disasters,has always been a topic of great concern and concern in China and the entire world.There are various methods for predicting debris flow hazards.The most common one is the predictive model based on the analytic hierarchy process.The model uses the debris flow as a system to comprehensively decompose,compare and judge,and then re-integrate.At that time,the accuracy of the debris flow prediction was greatly improved.However,the analytic hierarchy process is a method that is similar to the human brain thinking and analysis decision-making,so there is a largely subjective color.Aiming at the above problems,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the mechanism of debris flow and the characteristics of external hazard factors,and studies a large number of predecessor debris flow warning models and methods,so as to establish a prediction and early warning model for debris flow hazard risk assessment.The simulation was carried out using the actual data of the experimental area-Miyun Dajiao Village,and the validity of the model was fully certified.The main work of the thesis includes:(1)Because the gestation process of debris flow is dynamic,this paper uses the event tree method to establish an event tree model of debris flow dynamic occurrence.The fuzzy language in fuzzy mathematics represents the occurrence probability P of the event tree node.The expert's evaluation carried out a fuzzy evaluation of the occurrence probability of debris flow,and then used the method of defuzzification to calculate the probability of debris flow disaster risk.To a certain extent,the model fits the dynamics of debris flow development process,and the calculated probability of debris flow disaster events is consistent with the actual situation.(2)Aiming at the problem of strong subjectivity in the prediction of analytic hierarchy process,this paper firstly analyzes the weight of each hazard factor according to the phenomenon of many hazard factors and the degree of influence in the process of debris flow development,and then uses the extension.The theory of learning establishes corresponding three major elements according to the risk level of debris flow and the hazard factor.By calculating the correlation degree of each hazard(3)factor to the debris flow and the membership degree of the object to be tested for various risk states of the debris flow hazard,the purpose of quantitative early warning and the classification of hazard levels in the region are realized.(4)Using the detailed debris flow monitoring data of the test area-Miyun Dajiao Village,the relevant simulations were carried out in the hierarchical-extension early warning model established in this paper.The final quantified indicators and the classification of hazard levels and the debris flow in the area were obtained.The actual situation is consistent.