Analysis Of Grain Supply And Demand Structure Balance And Influencing Factors In China Based On Grey Model Technology

Grain plays an important role in the international people's livelihood.It is not only an economic issue,but also about the stability of society and the long-term stability of the country.As a big grain country,there are many problems such as excess supply,mismatch of supply and demand regional structure,imbalance of variety structure,excessive reserve and excessive imports in China at present.In the future,China's grain policy will gradually shift from "yellow box" to "green box",and grain self-sufficiency is no longer the core of the grain security strategy.The focus of grain security will transforme to ensure the quality of grain and reasonable grain variety structure on the basis of ensuring a certain amount of grain supply and grain self-sufficiency rate.Therefore,the scientific quantitative analysis of the structural balance of grain supply and demand and the factors affecting grain production in China is a powerful basis for ensuring various supply-side policy formulation.According to the theory of system engineering,this paper uses the grey system model to quantitatively analyze the structural balance and influencing factors of China's grain supply and demand,provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of various grain policies in China,and establish a long-term mechanism to solve the problem of China's grain supply.This paper firstly uses grey system modeling ideas to establish a variety of grey prediction models,and analyzes the balance of grain supply and demand from three aspects:quality level balance,quantity supply and demand balance and regional supply and demand balance.Then this paper uses the grey relational analysis model based on entropy weight method to measure the quantitative relationship between supply and demand gap and various factors in the balance of grain supply and demand.Finally,the paper analyzes the structural balance of grain supply and demand in Henan province.The main works as follows:Firstly,the paper analyzes the status of import and export and production of Main grain crops in China.Considering the characteristics of grain supply and demand data,based on grey interval prediction and grey GM(1,N)prediction model,the demand and grain production of main grain crops and totals in China are predicted and analyzed.The forecast results show that China's grain demand and yield will continue to grow in the next three years.There is still a big gap between the supply and demand of China's main grain crops.Soybean demand is growing,but its production is far behind.Secondly,according to the characteristics of China's grain production,the supply and demand sub-regions of main grain are analyzed,and according to the characteristics of their data,the grey DGM(1,1)model is used to forecast the yield and demand of wheat,corn,soybean and paddy in various regions from 2018 to 2020.The results show that the focus of China's grain production is more inclined to the main producing areas,the main position of the main grain producing areas is more prominent,and the demand is also growing.The yield of most of the main grain crops in the main sales area will continue to decline,the demand will continue to grow,and its production capacity will further weakened,but the yield is sufficient to meet its demand,and its production and sales are basically stable.Then,the production and demand of China's main grain crops is graded according to the quality standard classification of main grain crops.And then the number of grades of grain yield and demand is predicted according to the modeling principle of grey non-equal spacing GM(1,1).The forecast results show that there is an annual average of 10 million tons gap between the yield of medium and above of wheat and its demand,and the yield of third grade and below is oversupply;Medium and above yield of corn is greater than its demand,and its supply equal to or less than third is much smaller than its demand;The production of paddy above three grades is not enough to supply its demand,the supply of third grade and below is far greater than the demand is demand,and is increasing at a rate of 2%every year;Soybean yield is much smaller than demand in both total and quality levels.In addition,based on the grey combination incidence model,the planting area,unit area output,disaster area,agricultural machinery total power,population quantity and per capita disposable income are selected from six aspects of supply and demand to establish the impact factor index system to supply and demand gap of China's main grain crops,and the factors affecting the grain production and demand gap in China's main grain producing provinces were analyzed.Then based on the grey combination model,the paper analyzes the factors affecting the grain production in China's main grain producing provinces,and analyzes the differences in the factors affecting grain production of 13 main grain producing provinces in China.Finally,this paper takes Henan province as an example to analyze and predict the supply and demand of grain,the supply and demand of grain quality grade,and the regional supply and demand structure of grain in Henan province based on the national grain supply and demand structure calculation method.The results show that Henan province can adjust the balance of supply and demand in three aspects,which is a strong guarantee for China's grain supply.