Study On Prediction And Loss Assessment Model Of Marine Oil Spill

Since the 18th National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China,China has proposed the construction of a "powerful marine nation",which calls for continuous development of the marine economy and constant optimization of the marine ecological environment.The ever-increasing frequency of marine oil pollution incidents has become the major factor to constraining the development of a "powerful marine nation".Therefore,it is extremely important to strengthen the prediction and assessment of marine oil spills and establish a system for the assessment and compensation of marine pollution losses.In this paper,summarizes the marine oil spills background and significance and discusses the problems about the accuracy of marine oil spills prediction is not high and the resulting loss assessment is inaccurate.Also,this paper analyzes related knowledge and technology about cellular automata,COM components,.NET Framework,and ArcGIS Engine etc.This paper mainly constructs the model of marine oil spill prediction model based on cellular automata and marine oil spill loss assessment model.In the marine oil spill prediction model based on cellular automata,the influence coefficients of wind flow and water flow are improved,and the influence of factors such as shore attachment,dissolution,and emulsification on the oil spill is taken into consideration,and the emulsification factor is actually quantified by emulsifying the moisture content.The marine oil spill loss assessment model assesses oil spill losses in terms of economic losses,environmental losses,cleanup costs and assessment costs.Finally,taking into account the complicated process and large amount of calculation in the marine oil spill prediction model and loss assessment model,the use of the component-based ArcGIS Engine technology based on.NET was used to design and develop a marine oil spill system to achieve oil spill prediction and loss assessment and basic map features.The model of marine oil spill prediction based on cellular automata constructed by this paper considers factors more comprehensive,can better simulate the dynamic process of ocean oil spills,improve the accuracy of prediction,provide basis for decision-makers to make scientific decisions,and can take timely measures to the surrounding environment.Sea areas are protected to reduce the impact of oil spill accidents;The marine oil spill loss assessment model can make a quantitative estimate of the loss,facilitating government rapid processing and economic claims;Based on the above model,the marine oil spill system can rapidly predict and evaluate oil spills,and visually display the analysis results.It provides a technical analysis method and method for solving the oil spill problem in the ocean and has positive effects and significance.