Study On Spatial-temporal Patterns Of Land Use Change And Simulation Forecast In Yongxing Island

Land use change has become an important area of globalization research with the continuous development of geographic information system spatial analysis technology and remote sensing detection technology.Based on the quantitative study of land structure changes and the number of use,more attention is paid to the change of land use space-time pattern and process.Research to more accurately understand the driving mechanisms of land-use change processes.In recent years,under the background of the country's "building a strong ocean nation",the ecological protection and rational development of islands have become increasingly important.As a natural platform for human development and utilization of the sea,its ecological environment is unavoidably interfered with by human activities.Under unreasonable development activities,the ecological environment of the island is difficult to recover.Therefore,research on the changes in the temporal and spatial pattern of land use in islands and the development trend can provide effective basis and guarantee for the effective allocation of island land use and space resources and the benign circulation and sustainable development of island landscape ecosystems.Taking Yongxing Island as an example,the paper analyzes and simulates the change process and development trend of regional land use spatial and temporal patterns.The main contents are as follows:(1)Based on Landsat TM/ETM+and OLI remote sensing data sources,remote sensing monitoring and information extraction of land use/cover(LUCC)changes in Yongxing Island was explored to explore the types of land use/cover change(LUCC)in the region.The mutual transformation,the analysis of dynamic changes and the advantages of the transformation.(2)Based on the current status map of land use in Yongxing Island and combined with Frag-stats software to extract 9 different landscape pattern indexes,a systematic analysis of the characteristics of landscape pattern evolution of Yongxing Island from 1989 to 2017 was conducted to discuss the driving mechanism of land use change.(3)Based on the IDRISI geographic information system platform,based on the Yongxing Island 2014 and 2017 land use status maps as the basic data,through the mining of land-use type conversion rules,the use of the CA-Markov model for the Yongxing Island 2020 land-use type Change makes predictions of quantity and space.In this paper,the dynamic analysis of the composition and patch characteristics of the landscapes in different periods of Yongxing Island can effectively explain the law of the overall landscape change and the possible driving factors in the study area.The CA-Markov model is used to simulate and predict the island landscape dynamics.In order to promote the scientific management plan of islands and maintain the ecological health of the island,it provides an effective basis.