Design And Verification Of Prediction Model,Prevention And Control Strategies For Ebola Infectious Disease Based On STEM Platform

The continuous outbreak of infectious diseases has had a tremendous impact on human health,survival and economic development.Since the 1970 s,new infectious viruses that are constantly mutating have quietly coming to human beings,and at least one new infectious disease has been discovered every year.As the flow of human populations continues to increase,creating favorable conditions for the spread of infectious diseases,human beings are facing the growing threat of infectious diseases.Therefore,in-depth study of effective monitoring methods for infectious diseases,the establishment and development of timely and accurate infectious disease prediction,prevention and control technologies,has important theoretical significances and realistic values for improving the overall technical level of public health in China.This dissertation conducts an in-depth study on the establishment of prediction model,and the selection of best prevention and control strategies for Ebola infectious disease by using the spatio-temporal epidemiological modeler(STEM)platform.And theoretical analysis,model fitting,data simulation and experimental comparison analysis are mainly adopted.The main contents include the following three parts.Firstly,the open source STEM epidemiology space-time modeling platform is introduced.The platform is a modeling platform for creating and running epidemiological models,which can greatly reduce the complexity of creating new epidemiological models and improve the efficiency of infectious disease modeling.Secondly,aiming at the prediction problem of the incidence of Ebola infectious disease,a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-death-hospitalization-buried(SEIRDHB)compartment model is designed and established by using STEM platform.And the model is adopted to simulate and analyze the Ebola infectious disease epidemic in West Africa in 2014.Experimental results show that the SEIRDHB compartment model can accurately predict the Ebola infectious disease epidemic,and the prediction accuracy is higher than the ones of susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)model and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered(SEIR)model.Finally,aiming at the control and intervention problems of Ebola infectious disease epidemic,three targeted prevention and control methods such as social isolation,professional burial and hospital treatment are designed.By assuming the intervention scenario to simulate the implementation effects of various control methods,the efficiency of different epidemic prevention and control methods is compared by using the analysis of the incidence trend.Besides,the effects of different prevention and control methods are quantitatively evaluated by comparing the basic regeneration number,and then a best prevention and control strategy is implemented.Experimental results demonstrate that the community isolation of Ebola patients is the most effective prevention and control strategy to prevent the spread of Ebola infectious disease.