Financial Credit Risk Analysis Of J Bank Supply Chain Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Supply chain finance is a new financial concept and credit model.In this kind of financial business,banks,by virtue of the tripartite contractual relationship among the main body of supply chain credit,core enterprises and the small and medium-sized enterprises,have transformed the risk management of a single enterprise before into that of the whole supply chain,thus weakening the rigid requirements for financial indicators of financing enterprises,and emphasizing the real trade background of small and medium-sized enterprises and the strength and credibility of core enterprises.In this way,some small and medium-sized enterprises,which are difficult to finance because of unqualified financial indicators,can obtain loans with the single business of real transactions,thus effectively solving the financing problems that have long plagued their development.But moreover,small and medium-sized enterprises with varied operating conditions make the financing environment extremely complex.The links in the supply chain are interrelated and interdependent so that problems in any link may cause chain reaction,affecting the normal operation of the whole supply chain.Therefore,the potential risk management and control of supply chain finance has always been an important issue for financial theory and practice.As one of the four major state-owned banks in China,Bank J has always been in a leading position in the industry.Consequently,this paper,by selecting Bank J as the research object,has a certain representativeness for the problem studied.The purpose of this study is to establish a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the supply chain financial credit risk of Bank J through a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative analysis of the main financing modes of the supply chain financial business.The research methods can be summarized as the following two basic principles.One is the combination of theoretical research and practical application,with the latter as the main principle;the other is the combination of macro-research and micro-analysis,with the latter as the main principle.The technical road-map can be divided into the following five logical links:(1)Fully collate and analyze the domestic and foreign research literature on supply chain finance,and dynamically grasp the research results,research trends and development trends of supply chain finance theory and practice;(2)Carefully comb the theoretical basis,operation mechanism and credit model of supply chain finance,and summarize the traditional methods of credit risk assessment of supply chain finance;(3)Make detailed analysis of the operation status of Bank J's supply chain financial business,accurately define its supply chain financial business and credit risk assessment problems,and design possible improvement methods and approaches;(4)Systematically study the influencing factors of financial credit risk in Bank J's supply chain,determine the index system of credit risk assessment,and construct a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of financial credit risk in Bank J's supply chain;(5)Select and collect the sample data of Bank J's supply chain financial business and evaluate the risk with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model constructed in this paper.Then,compare the evaluation results with the actual situation and traditional analysis methods,and analyze the effectiveness and operability of the risk assessment model.The conclusions of this paper can be summarized as follows:(1)Credit risk of supply chain finance is a typical non-systemic risk,which is also the primary risk faced by supply chain finance.The main risk factors include macro-environment factors,supply chain characterization factors,financing enterprise qualification factors,core enterprise qualification factors and credit support asset characterization factors.(2)The subjective factors and qualitative indicators of credit risk have certain fuzziness.The traditional rigid transformation and strict mathematical model can not accurately define this kind of fuzzy phenomenon,and the membership degree theory of fuzzy sets provides an appropriate quantitative transformation method.In addition,if the linear compensation and correlation between credit risk evaluation indicators are not processed,the evaluation results will be seriously affected in the general linear weighted model.(3)When there are more elements in the set of indicators,the weight allocated by each indicator is correspondingly smaller if the importance of indicators is uniformly measured,which makes it difficult to separate the good and bad order among the indicators in the set,and consequently no meaningful evaluation results can be obtained.At this time,there is an appropriate processing method,that is,to divide the elements in the index set into several levels according to some attributes,and the number of indicators in each level is usually controlled below 5 in order to facilitate data processing.(4)This paper has designed a mathematical model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and carries out credit risk analysis for Company Z's main body financing and supply chain financing respectively.The analysis conclusion is consistent with that of Bank J's credit department with factor analysis method,which conforms to the actual situation of Company Z's supply chain financing.The validity and feasibility of the model are verified.