Sustainable Energy Transitions:Model Construction And Analysis

Based on the concept framework of transition theory,this paper analyses the energy system from multi-level perspective,and constructs a system dynamics model of sustainable energy transformation.The model chooses coal,oil,natural gas,wind,hydropower,solar,photovoltaic and nuclear energy as the research objects,and evaluates the path of sustainable transformation of energy system,so as to reflect the development prospects of various niches of current energy system and the complex internal interaction in the process of sustainable energy transformation.Based on China's energy data,the model was parameterized,and the energy system was simulated from 2016 to 2050.The main conclusions are as follows:1)Sustainable landscape signal is the necessary condition for the successful energy transition.Without sustained landscape signal pressure,the sustainable transformation of energy system will not occur;2)The strength of sustained landscape signal has an impact on the degree of transformation.The stronger the landscape signal is,the higher the degree of transformation is,the weaker the landscape signal is,and the lower the degree of transformation is.3)In the long run,renewable energy will dominate.However,oil and gas will be the main alternative energy sources for the current transformation of China's energy system in the next 10 years.This is because when landscape signals change consumers'behavior,the oil and gas niche will be more advanced in technology and infrastructure in the short run.They will perform better in cost and efficiency than renewable energy.It is necessary to support the development of renewable energy;4)Under the circumstances of successful transformation,the renewable energy strength will reach 0.59 by 2050 and dominate the whole energy system,in which hydropower occupy the highest proportion of renewable energy and play the most important role in the scenario of successful transformation of energy system,which proves that the role of hydropower should be given more attention in the process of China's sustainable energy transformation.