Interpretation Of Wind Numerical Model Products In Maritime Safety Guarantee

With the development of China's coastal economy and the implementation of the strategy"21st-Century Maritime Silk Road",various offshore operations are becoming more and more frequent.The Western Pacific and Indian Ocean has complex and changeable weather system.The weather system with strong wind brings more and more safety challenges to the safety of ship navigation and offshore operation.With the maturity of technology,numerical model products have gradually changed from assistant prediction to the main body of meteorological support services.Besides,it has become an important mean to improve the accuracy of weather forecast,especially the forecasting and early warning ability of disastrous strong wind.However,practical experience shows that the original data of numerical model products need to be corrected in order to reduce system errors and uncertainties.Only in this way,the best maritime safety guarantee can be achieved.This paper takes the numerical model wind speed prediction product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts as the object of interpretation.The interpretation method of wind speed numerical model products in our country's coast was studied based on the wind speed observation data of the Lufeng offshore operation platform in the eastern part of the South China Sea the training ship "Yukun" of Dalian Maritime University and the"KanTan IV" drilling platform.Firstly,the effects of different space-time interpolation on wind speed prediction data was compared,and the fast refinement method of non-compact grid model data was selected.After that,the wind speed observation data of the Lufeng Platform,the"Yukun" ship and the model prediction data were used to complete the data reading,business transformation application,assessment,correction,re-assessment and re-correction studies.Inspired by the correction result of the descending averaging bias correction based on the Kalman fliter,the sampling window of the climate average error is dynamically expanded to obtain the convergence error.Through subjective and objective evaluation of different correction results,it is found that the effect of wind speed prediction is further improved after removing the stable climatic average error.Finally,the suitability test shows that it can effectively improve the prediction of the wind speed numerical model products.In addition,this paper further confirms the practical value of the numerical model wind speed prediction products in maritime safety guarantee through a long-distance towing case of " KanTan ?"platform in June 2018.