Application Of SIR Model In Covid-19

Covid-19 is a kind of fierce respiratory infectious disease similar to SARS.Different.from SARS,its transmission mode is more extensive.Sars-cov-2 virus has appeared in more than 200 countries and regions around the world,especially in the United States,Italy,Spain and other European and American regions.At present,the epidemic situation in China has been basically controlled.The study on the spread of sars-cov-2 virus can provide reference for the epidemic prevention and control in other countries.SIR model is the most basic and importantmodel for the study of infectious diseases.Based on the lag and confusion of the epidemic information,we first,use the data of Guangdong Province to make the fitting of SIR model.The pur-pose is to determine the estimated value of removal intensity β,and then use this estimated value to make the SIR of Wuhan region By fitting the model and the stochastic SIR model;we can find the reasonable β,γ,restore the epidemic situa-tion in Wuhan,discuss the change of basic regeneration number,and discuss the impact of isolation,vaccination and other measures on the covid-2019 epidemic situation.