Research On The Market Risk Management Of Lycium Barbarum In Ningxia Based On Future-option Tool

Financial derivatives are conducive to the perfection of financing functions and can effectively hedge risks to meet the needs of investors.Since the launch of the first standardized option contract,the option derived from the simplest European option into the American option,and the more complex Asian option derived from the American option.The development process of the option is a process of continuous renewal,with more and more varieties and more complex pricing.As for the underlying assets of options,their varieties are also richer than before.At the beginning,the underlying asset is only the stock,later the option contract with stock index as the underlying asset was launched,and then extended to foreign exchange and interest rate.As an effective tool for hedging risks in the market,real options,represented by commodity options,have attracted more and more attention from the theoretical and practical circles.Lycium barbarum is a valuable economic plant for both food and medicine in China,Ningxia lycium barbarum has the largest cultivation area in China,however,during the development of Chinese wolfberry industry,the price of Chinese wolfberry fluctuates greatly.This not only affects the interests of consumers,but also relates to the healthy development of Chinese wolfberry industry upstream and downstream enterprises.Therefore,it is very important to analyze the price fluctuation of Chinese wolfberry and carry out risk management.Weather risk is one of the important risk sources in the development of Chinese wolfberry industry.In addition,because of the strong region of Chinese wolfberry,with the characteristics of small market scale,concentrated production area,more resistant to storage,easy to be domestic hot money speculation,easy to appear hoarding phenomenon,which is not conducive to the stability of the market.Market risk is the main risk in the development of Chinese wolfberry industry.Firstly,based on the weather data of Yinchuan,we establish a mean regression model for simulation,and design a weather option contract based on heating index and cooling index to avoid losses caused by weather risk.Then,based on the scholars' literature on Chinese wolfberry industry,we select the historical data of spot settlement price of Chinese wolfberry on the exchange as the research object,and construct the Heston random volatility model to simulate the fluctuation of Chinese wolfberry price,and carry out the parameter estimation of the Heston model.We design the futures option of Chinese wolfberry based on the futures contract in line with the real market and conducts pricing research to avoid the price risk of Chinese wolfberry market.