| Measles is one of the most infectious respiratory diseases caused by measles virus.According to the World Health Organization(WHO),more than 440000 measles cas-es have been reported in 2019,and many countries around the world are experiencing a large-scale measles epidemic.In China,measles outbreaks is still in an unstable state,especially in the eastern coastal provinces(including Jiangsu Province).By analyzing the data of measles incidence in Jiangsu Province,we found that the age distribution has a great influence on the time course and outcomes of the transmis-sion and spread of infectious diseases.In this paper,we establish a multistage model based on age,so that the complexity of measles dynamics may be better understood and controlled.We first derive the basic reproduction number R0 and then apply graph theory to prove that R0 is a sharp threshold parameter:under reasonable bio-logical assumptions,if Ro?1,the disease-free equilibrium P0 is global asymptotical stable;if Ro>1,Po is unstable,and the global asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium P*is established under some sufficient conditions.Moreover,considering that the monthly data of measles cases in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2018 has a periodic trend,we use the simplified periodic model to simulate the monthly data of measles cases reported in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2018,and carry out some sensitivity analysis of R0 in the terms of various model parameters,which shows that it is an effective way to prevent and control measles to increase the vaccination rate and reduce the infection rate among the population. |
PDF Full Text Request