Study On Land Use Change In Upper Nenjiang River Basin Based On Logistic-CA-Markov Model

As one of the important research contents of environmental change and geography in the world,land use change show the most direct interaction between man and nature.The process of studying land use/cover change is long and tedious,so it is necessary to establish simplified and abstract land use models,which can not be replaced to study the process of land use change,the characteristics of space-time change,the driving force and the future prediction of change.Combined with the previous research on the spatial pattern of land use,we can understand the process and mechanism of LUCC change more accurately,analyze the local land use change,provide more scientific basis for the timely integration and change policy of land related departments,make the local land use more and more reasonable,so that the land can achieve sustainable development.With the continuous development of the current economy,most of our country is faced with population,resources and environment problems,and the northeast is also very serious.Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out this research in Northeast China,which can make the implementation of relevant land use policies more reasonable,continuous and targeted,and provide more scientific reference basis for relevant departments.In the northeast of China,the upper Nenjiang River basin is selected as the study area,which focuses on the change process,driving force and prediction of land use in the natural basin in time and space.The land use classification data are obtained by interpreting remote sensing images of the upper Nenjiang River basin in 1998,2008 and2018.Then the spatial variation law and evolution characteristics of local land use in these 20 years are analyzed by transfer matrix,land use degree,etc.Then eight factors affecting land use change are selected from three aspects: natural,community economy and accessibility,and the land use change driving mechanism is regressed by Logistic model,and the distribution suitability is generated to correct the CA transformation rules.Based on this,the CA-Markov model is used to predict the land use in the upper reaches of Nenjiang River Basin in 2028 and 2038 under two scenarios.Finally,the results are tested and analyzed to verify their accuracy.The results show:(1)The data structure of land use in the upper reaches of the Nenjiang River Basin in the period 1998-2018 showed a general decline,on the one hand,the cultivated land and forest land decreased substantially,the area decreased by 1882.26 km2,the cultivated land decreased slightly less than the woodland 1875.75 km2,the tatal unused area decreased 1.77 km2,the change was not very obvious;the grassland,water area and construction land increased by 3484.74 km2,193.11km2 and 81.89km2 respectively.Among them,the construction land is only transferred into and out,and the other five types of land use have two forms of transfer and transfer.(2)The coefficient ? and p)(ex ? obtained by Logistic regression to discuss the driving force of land use change,it can be seen that the influencing factors of different types of land will not exist alone,but are interrelated.DEM and slope are the basic conditions of land use change,population and economy also counteract the natural environment,close range and other factors to promote the evolution of land use.In general,the eight factors selected in this paper have an effect on the change of land use,but the influence size is different.(3)Two scenarios(natural development mode and sustainable development model)were used to simulate and predict the land use change in the upper reaches of Nenjjiang River in 2028 and 2038,and the development trend of land use under two different models was obtained respectively.The results show that under natural was obtained respectively.The results show that under natural development,the construction land in the upper Nenjiang River Basin is still growing rapidly.If the development continues,the contradiction between man and hand will be more serious,the ecological land will be difficult to protect,and the environmental and economic development will be unpredictable.Under the sustainable development,because of the influence of the constrained conditions,the growth rate of the area of construction land has slowed down,which has reduced the expansion and encroachment of other land.In general,if the policy can be implemented and strictly implemented,the land use will be developed steadily.