Study On The Effects Of Tropical Cyclones On Vanilla Production And Countermeasure Means

Tropical cyclones globally affect the production of agricultural products,and Madagascar vanilla is no exception.Although the geographic location offers favorable conditions to vanilla exploitation,it also directly exposes the country to the annual passages of tropical cyclones.As one of the major suppliers of vanilla on the international market,Madagascar vanilla is renowned worldwide for its unique aroma.Indeed,at the national level,vanilla represents an important economic crop value since it represents a significant function in the country's trade balance;internationally,vanilla from Madagascar continues to maintain its market share due to its quality.However,the exploitation of vanilla mainly suffers from severe climatic conditions that affect production,and of less importance,from recurrent political instability which leads to poor governance of the sector.Madagascar being both the largest producer and exporter of vanilla in the world,a variation in production can lead to an irregularity of supply and demand.Since vanilla is not a staple crop,trade-in vanilla to a larger market is essential,hence the need for economic interdependence.This interdependence of the economy could not only improve the gains from trade but also contribute to(1)the improvement of production by the engine of specialization in this culture,(2)the integration of new means of production,(3)the exchange and communication of information and technologies to support economic and environmental growth.Several studies on the impact of climate change on agricultural products have mainly examined their impact on the market and demand.Nevertheless,climate change,and more particularly tropical cyclones,affects the entire vanilla production chain in Madagascar.Although trade is the final objective of agricultural activities,improving supply conditions is an essential step towards sustainable development.Since the vanilla value depends mainly on its availability on the market,we have to consider the irregularity of the supply at its root for a more complete understanding of the production process.In this research,the hypothesis on production irregularities will be examined by a study of vanilla production means in Madagascar characterized by socio-economic,political,and climatic factors.The aim of this research is threefold.First,this research will attempt to make an in depth restitution of the historical vanilla production and price change in Madagascar from 1995 to 2018.Second,it will quantify the tropical cyclones by its recurrence.Third,a regression analysis of the data will attempt to demonstrate the impact of annual tropical cyclones on vanilla price.From the result of our tropical cyclone quantification,it was estimate that from 2000 to 2019,the passage of 27 tropical cyclones occurred regularly from December to May and are more concentrated on January(22,22%),February(25,92%),and on March(29,69%)which mainly hit the preparation of plantation stake,and the cutting.The damage caused by tropical cyclones revealed a significant estimation of 313982 people affected by both cyclone and flood,an average of 98 deaths and an economic mean loss of 128 million dollars.Our linear regression model result revealed an R square of 0.8037 which explains 80% of the variability in Y with our variability in X.In our model,the Adjusted R square 0.6810 will be our reference which revealed 68%.Besides,the Anova test shows us an overall significance p value of 0.0103.Our Y hat which estimates the prediction of Y for a given value of X using sample statistics revealed a negative relationship as an increase in the independent variable would decrease our dependent variable when the other independent variables do not change.In this context,this study suggests the timely and concise spread of information through multiple multimedia platforms to prevent and mitigate the impact of tropical cyclones on vanilla production.In addition to traditional technologies such as television and radio,low-cost mobile phones could start to be distributed to all villagers living in dangerous areas to spread information on a massive scale.