Research Of The Effect Of Atmosphere Forcing On Forecast In Ocean Numerical Model

The current ocean forecasting model is mainly driven by the momentum,heat and freshwater fluxes of the atmosphere.And the forecasting effects of the ocean model are different when we use different atmospheric forced products.Examining the impact of different atmospheric products on the ocean model forecast results can provide experimental support for the establishment of a global ocean forecast system and the optimization of forecasting systems.This article intends to use the global spectrum model YHGSM atmospheric forecast products to drive hybrid coordinate ocean model HYCOM to accomplish global ocean forecast,and to establish a global ocean forecast model driven by YHGSM products.On the basis of comparing the YHGSM atmospheric forecasting products,the NAVGEM atmospheric reanalysis data of the Navy’s global environment model and the monthly average reanalysis data ERA-15 of ECMWF,HYCOM completes 5 days a day of January 2017 ocean forecasts with these data as atmosphere forcing.In this paper,YHGSM global atmospheric forecasting product is applied to ocean numerical forecasting and its forecasting effect is evaluated.This work is the first time that it has the value of research and application at home and abroad,and provides the experimental reference for the application of YHGSM in ocean forecasting.The main work and conclusion of this paper are as follows:1)The three atmospheric forcing products of YHGSM,NAVGEM reanalysis data and monthly average reanalysis data of ECMWFare contrasted and analyzed,which provide references for the analysis of the model prediction results.2)Analyze the process of momentum,heat and freshwater flux at the air-sea interface,and determine the type of atmospheric forcing variables needed for ocean forecasting with the theory.At the same time,the construction of atmospheric forcing data for HYCOM mode is completed,avoiding the HYCOM model to deal with a variety of format data.3)The ability of the initial oceanic field to describe the real ocean is closely related to the forecasting effect.For reflecting the true state of the ocean,this article improves the production method of the initial ocean field for forecasting experiment to solve the problem that the initial field variable is incomplete in the model.4)After analyzing the parallel computing framework of HYCOM model,with the choice of MPI parallel regionalization and parallel computing methods,the test results show that the use of 1260 MPI processes is based on the reasonable parallel setup scheme of this test platform,which solves the problem of high resolution ocean model of operational efficiency issues.5)Based on the evaluation indexes of root mean square error and anomaly correlation coefficient in the range of 45° S-45° N and 126° E ocean section in the eastern part of our country,this article complete the assessment of the effect in the temperature salinity and flow rate from the ocean forecast.It is pointed out that the forecast effect of the YHGSM for the atmospheric forcing is slightly worse than that of NAVGEM,but better than that of ERA-15,which can meet the demand of ocean forecast.6)From the perspective of ocean numerical forecasting results application,the forecasting effect of the forecasting model on the sound velocity profile and thermocline is evaluated when using YHGSM atmospheric forcing.The results show that YHGSM has good application effect on the oceanic forecast of atmospheric forcing.