Prediction For Purchase Intentions Of Auto Consumers Based On Statistical Learning Methods

With the reform of China economic structure and supply side,enterprises in China attach more importance to the cost performance of publicity.Auto manufacturers are looking forward to more cost-effective and efficient publicity methods for product promotion and questing potential consumers.Thus,this paper focuses on precise advertisement placement.To realize the precision marketing,information and behaviors of target users shall be analyzed to get users' demand and preference.Because auto manufacturers and dealers cannot touch the final users directly while Auto Home has a large volume of consumer data,it can provide precision marketing projects and strategies for auto manufacturers to help them mine potential consumers and place advertisement,achieve win-win results.In this paper,based on the predecessors' study,the statistic learning method is adopted to analyze the purchase intentions of auto consumers in China,and precision marketing suggestions are given.Firstly,according to existing consumers' information and surfing habits as well as auto promotion activities,with the help of statistical analysis and data mining methods,the total data we can get are explored and processed by using R software.Secondly,traditional logistic regression method and four modern classification algorithms(including support vector machine,decision tree,bagging and boosting)are implemented to build the models for the training data set.Then,all these methods are evaluated according to the error rate of the prediction results to select the best model.Finally,according to the process and result of the model building,we summarize the situation of auto market.The conclusions are listed as follows: The subsidy on purchasing small green cars by the government has stimulated the small car market;Cash allowance can promote consumers' buying intentions;Young users express a preference for buying cars.Based on these conclusions,the following precision marketing strategies are given for auto manufacturers: Make the core information stand out in an advertisement to arouse target users' interests;Pay attention to the publicity pace oriented to potential consumers to maintain the market heat;Under a weaker auto market condition,cash allowance can foster the growth in car consumption.