DSGE Model Construction And Empirical Study Of China's Energy-Environment-Economic System

Energy and the environment are closely related to human beings and are the basis for human survival.However,with the development of the economy,energy is continuously used.Environmental problems such as deteriorating air quality,soil erosion and climate warming are becoming more and more prominent.In 2017,China's energy consumption elasticity coefficient was 0.42.The importance of energy for China's economic and social development is unquestionable.On November 30,2018,heavy fog,dust and heavy pollution mixed up in many places in China seriously affect economic and social life.As a large developing country and one of the countries with the largest carbon dioxide emissions,China is under tremendous pressure to reduce energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.How to coordinate energy utilization,the relationship between economic development and environmental protection has become the focus of attention of the Chinese government,academia and the international community.With the further study of energy-economy and Environment-Economy system by domestic and foreign scholars,it is difficult to coordinate the development of energy,economy and environment without Energy-Environment-Economy(3E)system.Considering the interaction between energy,economic development and environmental protection,scholars have been acutely aware of the need to establish a 3E system.At present,the research on 3E system mainly focuses on measuring the coordination degree of 3E system.Existing research provides an important reference for the correct understanding of 3E systems,but it also has certain limitations.The existing research on 3E system lacks satisfactory processing of rational expectations and effective combination with general equilibrium analysis.It mainly focuses on the dynamic effects of 3E system,neglects the micro-foundation,and cannot effectively avoid "Lucas critique".The Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model is modeled on a microscopic basis and can effectively compensate for these deficiencies.Constructing the DSGE model of the 3E system provides a new direction andfoundation for the model construction of the 3E system.It also provides a valuable reference for the Chinese government to study how to coordinate the relationship between the three and how to formulate corresponding energy,environmental and economic development policies.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the 3E system model based on DSGE model.Based on the relevant literatures at home and abroad,this paper first introduces how to introduce environmental factors into the DSGE model based on the green Solow model.On this basis,the 3E system is empirically analyzed using the provincial panel data of the Yangtze River Delta region.Secondly,the DSGE model including the environmental-economic system and the 3E system is constructed separately to study the model construction of China's environmental-economic system and 3E system.At the same time,combined with the actual data of China,using Bayesian to estimate the parameters of the structural shocks,the Markov mechanism transfer model is used to describe the disaster shocks,and use impulse response analysis,welfare loss analysis,analysis of variance,etc.The effects of different exogenous shocks such as energy price shocks,technological shocks and disaster shocks on China's energy-economic system and 3E system are studied,and the robustness of the model is proved by statistical methods.Through model solving,empirical analysis and numerical simulation,this paper mainly obtains the following research conclusions:First,empirical analysis found that there is no long-term relationship between environmental investment ratio and GDP,and there is a long-term relationship between energy consumption,GDP,and environmental pollution control investment.Energy consumption has the largest contribution rate.Investment in environmental pollution control will have a small positive impact on the economy.The Yangtze River Delta region may have crossed the inflection point of the U-shaped line of environmental pollution control investment and economic development and entered the stage of innovation compensation.Second,in the environmental-economic system,technological shocks have a positive impact on the economy and the proportion of environmental investment has declined.Disaster shocks have a negative impact on the economy,and the proportion of environmentalinvestment has increased.Technological shocks have greater impact on macroeconomic variables than disaster shocks.The impact of the disaster shocks depicted by the Markov mechanism transfer model on various economic variables is a transient effect,that is,a discrete "jump" behavior.Third,in the 3E system,energy price shocks have a negative impact on the economy,while the proportion of environmental investment increases.The impact of rising energy prices on investment is greater than GDP,thereby increasing the ratio of environmental investment,which is considered to be conducive to economic structural transformation.Technological shocks have a positive impact on the economy,while reducing the ratio of environmental investment.The impact of technological shocks on investment is greater than GDP.Considering the continued economic development,it is found that improving technology is also a viable solution to reduce greenhouse gases.Disaster shocks have a negative impact on the economy.Technology shocks have a greater impact on the ratio of economic and environmental investment than energy price shocks and disaster shocks.Fourth,statistical methods such as Bayesian estimation prove that the DSGE model containing the 3E system is robust.From the perspective of welfare losses,technology shocks are the most influential factor,while energy price shocks are minimal.From the perspective of variance decomposition,the results are consistent with welfare losses.