Research On Value Evaluation Of Cultural Media Enterprises Based On Fuzzy Real Options

With the change of the main contradictions in our society,the people’s need for culture has shifted from the pursuit of quantity to the desire for quality.Guided by a series of positive policies that encourage the development of the cultural industry,the cultural media industry,as a representative of the cultural industry,has achieved a new round of growth.With the increase of the industry scale,the number of listed companies and the increase of financing mergers and acquisitions,there is an increasing demand for the evaluation of the value of cultural media companies.Whether the company’s value can be effectively evaluated plays a vital role in the healthy development of the cultural media industry.This article selects cultural media companies as the evaluation objects and explores methods that can scientifically and reasonably evaluate the value of cultural media companies,in order to exert the role of asset evaluation in promoting the development of the industry.After summarizing and analyzing the research results of the predecessors,this article first analyzes the development status and trend of the cultural media industry and enterprises,which is the basis for the selection of assessment methods and the prediction of corporate earnings.Secondly,based on the definition and characteristics of cultural media companies and the development characteristics of the industry,the applicability of traditional evaluation methods and real option pricing methods is analyzed.Finally,a discounted cash flow model is used to evaluate the value of existing assets of the company,and an option pricing model is used to evaluate the real option value of the company and introduce fuzzy theory to improve it.Then,the article constructs B-S model and fuzzy B-S model,and explain the important parameters contained in the model.Finally,the three valuation methods are used to evaluate the enterprise value of Focus Media,and the evaluation results are compared with the market value of the enterprise.The results of the study show that the value of existing assets assessed by traditional income methods does not reflect the intrinsic value of an enterprise.The assessment results are lower than the market value of an enterprise;The B-S model can better estimate the real option value of cultural media companies,and the evaluation result is closer to the market value of the company;After introducing the fuzzy theory,the fuzzy B-S model evaluates the most likely value range of enterprise value rather than a specific value,and includes the market value of Focus Media.This article applies the real option method to the value evaluation of cultural mediaenterprises and conducts case analysis.The following main research conclusions can be drawn: First,the use of the income method for enterprise value evaluation must comprehensively consider factors such as industry development and enterprise characteristics.The impact of the assessment will be scientifically and rationally improved on the basis of traditional assessment methods;the second is that the real option method can dynamically quantify the potential value when evaluating the value of cultural media companies with a high proportion of light assets and large uncertainties.The value of the enterprise is evaluated;the third is that the evaluation results of the fuzzy real option pricing model are more scientific and can provide more reasonable decision-making reference for enterprise managers.