Study On Runoff Spatiotemporal Variation Of XINJIANG Kaidu-kongqi River Basin Based On SWAT Model

Xinjiang Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin is located in the southern part of Xinjiang,and is an important part of the Tarim River Basin.The continuous intensification of human economic and social activities has led to changes in land use types.At the same time,the continuous changes in climate have a certain impact on runoff changes in the basin.Land use is the most characteristic geographical form of human activities.The full development and utilization of land resources by mankind has greatly promoted economic development,and at the same time has had a profound impact on the ecological environment,climate environment and water environment that mankind depends on for survival.Climate change has not only caused changes in the ecological environment,but also has a profound impact on economic and social development.Therefore,the establishment of a hydrological model suitable for the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin,an in-depth analysis of the ecological hydrological cycle process of the basin,and the exploration of the response mechanism of the temporal and spatial changes of runoff in the basin to land use cover changes and climate change can be used to open the capital in the future.-Provide scientific basis and theoretical support for the scientific planning of ecological hydrological resources in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin,improving the efficiency of water resources development and use,and maintaining ecological balance.This paper takes the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin in Xinjiang as the research area,and takes the three years of land use and meteorological data obtained in 2005,2010,and 2015 as the research object,establishes a SWAT distributed hydrological model,and analyzes its land on space and time scales.Types of area changes and the degree of influence of climate element changes on the formation mechanism of river runoff.Draw the following main conclusions:(1)Through the SWAT-CUP program,use the 3rd phase of the measured monthly runoff data from the Yanqi Hydrological Station in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin to compare the simulated data for 3 times of model calibration,and select the 3rd phase of the measured monthly average runoff data and the simulated data Compared with 3times model verification.The evaluation level of the model simulation result compared with the certainty coefficient is 6 times B.The simulation results of the model and the measured data have roughly the same trend,which proves that the SWAT model has good applicability in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin.(2)Based on the land use,precipitation and temperature data in 2005,2010,and2015,the results of the three-year runoff simulation in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin are analyzed.The following conclusions are drawn: runoff is inversely proportional tothe area of bare soil and arable land,and proportional to the area of grassland;it is proportional to precipitation and inversely proportional to temperature.The runoff of the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin showed a decreasing trend in the three periods of 2005,2010,and 2015,mainly because:(1)The underlying surface conditions have changed,and the area of arable land,grassland,and bare soil in the basin has increased,intercepting part of the precipitation and reducing the runoff generated.(2)The temperature continues to rise and the amount of precipitation continues to decrease,which affects the formation of runoff and makes it continue to decrease.