Analysis Of Temporal-spatial Characteristics And Influence Factors Of Direct Carbon Emission Of 30 Provinces And Regions In China

Research on the direct carbon emission of residents is an important cornerstone to advance national ecological civilization and building sustainable consumption patterns.Based on the data of China's population,economy and energy of 30 provincial administrative units in China from 1995 to 2015,this paper uses carbon emission coefficient method,Markov prediction method,trend surface analysis method and space panel model,Firstly,based on the calculation of direct carbon emissions,the spatial-temporal characteristics and evolution trends of direct carbon emissions are analyzed in detail,and the types of carbon emissions are further divided according to the characteristics of carbon emissions;secondly,the spatial Dubin model is used to mine the impact mechanism of direct carbon of residents on the whole.,and further use of panel data regression analysis to identify the main influencing factors of different carbon emission reduction types;Finally,according to the carbon emissions impact mechanism,establish a carbon emission reduction model in line with local conditions,so as to provide scientific basis for formulating carbon emission reduction strategy according to local conditions..The findings are as follows:Firstly,from the perspective of the spatio-temporal characteristics,the total direct carbon emissions have shown a trend of first increase,then decrease,and then increase,tending to be stable;the direct carbon emissions of residents are generally expressed as high in the north and low in the south,high in the east,and low in the west;The study found that the direct carbon emission of residents does not match the average annual growth rate.According to these,it can be divided into high-high,high-low,low-high,and low-low types.The double-high types are mostly coastal economically developed provinces;the double-low types are mostly western provinces that are economically backward;the high-low types are mostly populous provinces or resource-based provinces;and the low-high types are mostly southwestern provinces where the urbanization process is in an accelerating stage,and the four types are interwoven in spatial distribution.Secondly,from the overall mechanism of direct carbon emissions from residents,first of all,for direct effects,consumption levels,carbon emission intensity,urbanization level,industrial structure,age structure,motor vehicle ownership,and population size are positive.For indirect effects,consumption levels,carbon intensity,urbanization level,and energy structure are negative,and the industrial structure and age structure are positive.Taken together,the direct effect of various factors on the direct carbon emissions of provincial residents accounts for 52.61% of the total effect,which is greater than the indirect partial effect of 48.55%,indicating that the marginal effect brought about by the change of a certain factor has a negative impact on the province.The impact is greater than the impact on neighboring provinces.Thirdly,from the perspective of the structural difference mechanism of different types of carbon emissions,carbon intensity,vehicle ownership,household consumption levels,and urbanization levels are the main factors affecting the low-low types;carbon intensity,residents consumption level,urbanization level,and population size are the main factors affecting low-high types;carbon intensity,urbanization level,and age structure are the main factors affecting the high-low types;carbon intensity and population scale and urbanization level are the main factors affecting the high-high types.Fourth,different types of carbon emission types should establish a mode of carbon emission reduction according to local conditions.For low-low types,attention should be paid to differences in the level of urbanization,technological advancement in carbon reduction and emission reduction,rational adjustment of residents consumption patterns,and control of motor vehicle travel.For low-high types,attention should be paid to the improvement of urbanization quality,and carbon reduction should be actively introduced.Arranging technologies,promoting sustainable consumption patterns,and improving energy use efficiency;targeting high and low genres,pursuing technological innovations,paying attention to “Jeffens Paradox” and improving residents' lifestyles;aiming at high genres,we must actively develop technologies With regard to the external export capacity,attention has been paid to the increase in direct carbon emissions from population aggregation in the peripheral regions of the region.Fifth,this paper finds the two-way mechanism of direct carbon emissions from urbanization and urban agglomeration to residents.The improvement of urbanization level has a positive effect on the increase of carbon emissions in the region,and has a negative effect on the increase of carbon emissions in neighboring provinces;the expansion of population scale has a negative effect on the direct carbon emission of low-high and high-type residents.This finding has important reference value for ecological civilization and new urbanization.